El Nino weakening

[Chad_A]

"SST anomalies decreased across the entire equatorial Pacific during January (compare top

and bottom panels in Fig. 1). However, positive anomalies between +0.5ºC and 1ºC remain in

most of the equatorial Pacific between 170ºE and the South American coast (Fig. 1, bottom). The

latest SST departures in the Niño regions are around 0.5ºC (Fig. 2). The equatorial upper-ocean

heat content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) peaked in late

November (Fig. 3) and has been decreasing rapidly since that time, with the latest values being

negative for the first time since early April 2006. These trends in surface and subsurface ocean

temperatures indicate that the warm episode (El Niño) is weakening. It is still possible for some

areas to experience El Niño-related effects during the next month, primarily in the region of the

central tropical Pacific.

Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System

(CFS), indicate that SST anomalies will continue to decrease and that ENSO-neutral conditions

are likely to develop during March-May 2007 (Fig. 4). There is considerable uncertainty in the

forecasts for periods after May 2007."

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

Maybe this will help us out with the snowpack...

[Dave_Schuldt]

Lower snow levels next week....

[erden]

Warmer waters will not make my row across the Pacific any easier. I will leave in June, and arrive at Australia end of December; i.e. start in summer, continue in summer and arrive in summer -- hot, hot, hot all the way already!!!

 

So any weakening is welcome news...

 

Erden.

[jmace]

jeez, where is your first stop..?

[erden]

That may well be in Australia - it is easier for me to find a continent than an island given the little horsepower on my boat. Besides the Pacific islands have coral reefs around them, so unless conditions are just right, or I am desperate, I will not push it. I am safer in open water.

 

Departure from San Francisco planned for 2am on June 2, pending winds and weather. More about the boat here.

 

Erden.

[whidbey]

Alpine start in a boat..... Interesting

[Weekend_Climberz]

Erden, we met at the Prost last Thursday (I was the long-haired hippy dude). Good luck to you on your journey. I keep thinking of Shackleton's voyage for help 800 miles across the Southern Ocean to Elephant Island when I read about your voyage. Forntunately, the waters will be a little less hypothermic where you will be traveling, but it is a brave voyage none the less.

 

 

God Speed brother :tup:

[tvashtarkatena]

That may well be in Australia - it is easier for me to find a continent than an island given the little horsepower on my boat. Besides the Pacific islands have coral reefs around them, so unless conditions are just right, or I am desperate, I will not push it. I am safer in open water.

 

Departure from San Francisco planned for 2am on June 2, pending winds and weather. More about the boat here.

 

Hey, Erden. We might a while ago (I'm the friend of Dimitri's that did the Caribbean kayak traverse).

 

What's the draft of your boat? I would think with proper charts and aerial photos of you could gather a list of passages through the reefs on the leeward side of many of the islands enroute. Not something you should depend on, perhaps, particularly with your limited speed, but but certainly something that would provide some exit points and respite from the daily grind. I had good luck doing this, but then again my draft was only 4 inches and I could do up to 6 knots in favorable conditions.

 

In any case, good luck,

 

Pat

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2007 by tvashtarkatena

[erden]

Thanks Pat (good to connect again!), and weekendclimber.

 

The draft of the boat is not much - about 20" - but the rudder hangs down further of course. I will have appropriate charts with me. Timing the tides and currents through those passages will prove challenging, not to mention the effect of the winds on this boat - it has a lot of windage.

 

It will be nice to make landfall somewhere along the way, if only to have another starting point if something goes wrong later before my arrival to Australia. I would hate to sit start again from San Francisco ;-)

 

Erden.

[tvashtarkatena]

Checked out your boat on the site but couldn't figure out the rudder system. I assume it's somewhat fixed, like a sailboat. My kayak had a 'flip up' rudder, as do most, which minimizes damage in the event of a grounding. It also minimizes strength of the rudder axle too, of course.

 

I'm curious how your boat surfs a following wave. Does it have a tendency to broach, or is it stable when surfing straight down the wave face? If the latter you might be able to surf in over reefs that are 4 or more feet below the surface, depending on conditions. I had a trimaran sailing rig, which luckily (not by design) turned out to be very stable while surfing. This afforded me more 'entry points' through reefs than the normal harbor entrances. On the flip side (no pun) my hull wasn't thick enough to take on much coral, so I had to be pretty careful.

 

I'll try to make it to the bike expo to see your rig.

 

 

[erden]

Rudder is fixed, controlled by a cable as in a bicycle brake cable. Rudder does not fold up on impact.

 

The body of the boat is marine plywood, with a coat of fiber on the bottom. Given the boat's loaded weight, it will not hold up against a coral.

 

The boat surfs OK with assistance from the rower. I had to keep an eye on the approaching waves, and control the broaching. On the front end of the wave, the boat wanted to broach (not too terribly), but on the back side of the wave, it wanted to correct itself -- the rudder provided a pivot point, and it felt like the front of the boat was lifted and flagged forward with the moving wave. I could correct course on the top side of the wave, and ride the forward rush with it.

 

Knowledge of local tides will be necessary for me to attempt any unconventional entry into island harbors.

 

Thanks for the input. I will confirm if the boat will be at the Seattle Bicycle Expo. My understanding is they are trying to figure out a way to display the boat.

 

Erden.

[tvashtarkatena]

Your GPS has tide tables, which will at least gives you level information, and your charts (on your GPS?) give you mean water level for the reefs (accuracy? Good question in some of the remoter areas), so you might be able to time your landings for some of the islands. As for the idiosynchrocies of local tide currents - ???. Is there a Captain Jack's for the South Pacific I wonder? A website? Will you have a sat phone? Perhaps you could call the local marina for advice prior to each attempted landing. Alternatively, get on Channel 16 and flag down a sailing cruiser already in harbor.

 

You've probably thought of all this. Sorry if any of this is redundant.

[erden]

Agreed.

 

On the Atlantic I had an older model GPS unit on the boat which did not show depth contours. I will be upgrading that before my launch. I had a Garmin GPSMAP76S as a backup which provided more details.

 

All said - conditions will have to be just right for me to try an island landing. I cannot risk this boat, I put my 401(k) into it, literally!

 

Erden.

[Weekend_Climberz]

Wow! That's commitment. :tup:

 

I can't wait to read your autobiography with all the gory details about the thoughts that go through your head while you are out there all alone.

[tvashtarkatena]

Don't forget your mahi mahi and ahi tackle.

[erden]

Don't forget your mahi mahi and ahi tackle.

 

Actually I am looking for the better tackles/lures out there to score more of the mahi mahi. The dorato (same fish, different ocean) were all around me on the Atlantic, I did not need to fish there; I still caught one dorato, and one yellow fin tuna. But on the Pacific, I will make a point of fishing to extend my range.

 

Maybe I should buy you a beer and you can give me some pointers on how best to fish the mahi-mahi and ahi.

 

Erden.

[erden]

all the gory details about the thoughts that go through your head while you are out there all alone.

 

That actually is the biggest challenge of the crossing: the extended solitude. The mind expands to fill the void. With the lack of stimulation, the mind tends to invent things and thoughts get stuck like a broken record out there. I had to learn to control the thoughts and to change the topic!

 

Erden.