weather.com vs. accuweather.com

[layton]

Weather.com - the pessimist. Will go from 0% to 60% within a matter of hours. 30% is their favorite per centage! It could be sunny and great or totally raining! Who knows? Stay inside!

 

accuweather.com - the optimist. no percentages, only happy icons that never forecast rain. good for convincing your partner to climb if you have nothing better to do with your time..., "Dude the weather says 'Sun and Clouds' let's go!"

 

Weather.gov -the generalist. Combining the unique weather ecosytems for the entire N.cascades into one vague forecasat. Washinton Pass and the Enchantments totally share the same forecast, dude!

 

Yahoo,Wunderground, etc...the rehash.

 

weatheroffice.ca.ec.gc -It's fun and cute that canadians try to forecast the weather! Of course, there's no mountain weather forecast. Sure is good that the forecast for Hope is aplicable to the mountains above.

 

So what have y'all found to be your fav forecast? I'm prone to go with weather.com as they are the most pessimistic. of course they screwed me outta some good weekends this spring (remember that bullshit?) as did weatheroffice.

[catbirdseat]

None of the above. Wunderground has been remarkably accurate.

[Dru]

You forgot to add the good old standard "flip a coin" model - heads it rains, tails its sunny. 50% success rate is only 10% less accurate than the supercomputers!

[catbirdseat]

Where do you get the 50% figure?

[layton]

wunderground is just weather.gov rehashed with icons. look at the weather station for the city you look up. could be nowhere near there.

[catbirdseat]

I don't go by the icons anyway. I go to "Detailed". But yes the cities are the closest ones to the stations.

[Dru]

Where do you get the 50% figure?

 

MY GOD YOU ARE RIGHT! I forgot the 0.0000000001% chance a coin will land on its edge! So it's only a 49.9999999999% success rate

[layton]

Where do you get the 50% figure?

 

MY GOD YOU ARE RIGHT! I forgot the 0.0000000001% chance a coin will land on its edge! So it's only a 49.9999999999% success rate

 

 

DRU! Wanna climb somthin'?

[catbirdseat]

Okay, smartass, I meant the "10% better than 50% "figure or 60% accurate for forecasts.

[layton]

It's correct 60% of the time, every time.

[Dru]

The persistence model and recurrence model are 60% accurate, and the best computer models are no more accurate than persistence or recurrence at predicting the forecast 5 days from now.

[ashw_justin]

Am I totally missing the point of another spray thread, or does nobody go by the NWS forecasts, i.e.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/wrhq/TotalForecast.csh?TotalForecast+WR+WA+017+073+MAPCOORDS^81^18

 

?

[layton]

weather.gov is the same thing dumbass

[ashw_justin]

so it is! I always just linked straight to that noaa.gov site. Anyway you just need to know how to interpret those forecasts for specific areas... I always assume more rain and colder temps than forecasted for the Mt. Baker area. Actually the generality forecasts your motivation better than it does the weather. It always sounds good if you really want to go.

[Alex]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Seattle/

[Bogen]

You have access to pretty much the same info these professional forecasters do. Look at the satellite maps, barometric pressure maps etc, and make your best guess. You probably won't do any better, but at least you'll have no-one but yourself to blame.

[jmace]

First of all all of those sites use computer generated icons, even environment canada. The computer chooses what icons to display based on what the forecaster types in, the forecaster also only can type a few words in to the bottom of the space. Second winter time, forecasters can only forecast 3-5 days out with any sucess, summer you can take that to 5-7 tops!!!!! Here on the coast. As bogen says take a look ot the sattelite, that will give you look at whats out there then have a look at the jet stream current and the forecast that will help you in deciding where the storm will travel. As well you will be able to see if there is any ridging in the forecast which will block weather and promote clear skies. Or pay a couple of bucks and phone the professionals for a personal forecast, if your climbing in canada phone Environment Canada and get the goods otherwise keep on looking at crappy websites that are meant for mommies wondering if they should pack a rain coat for their kids.

[SublimeSalamander]

I vote for Wunderground too.

[eric8]

I use weather.com but like to check there local forecast and compare it to what it is doing outside and then reduce the polynmols to get my correct forcast

 

Just remeber it's "sunny above the clouds" aye sheepshagger

[Gaper_Jeffy]

Read the NWS's forecast discussions. Here is the Seattle Discussion, and here's the Portland Discussion

[chris]

check out www.wunderground.com I've had a lot of luck with them.