This season's persistent weak layers

[Toast]

I don't want to sound like Chicken Little, but I was out last week and noticed huge TG crystal formations at ground and a pretty substantial layer of surface hoar all around from 3500' on up. With the long clear cold stint and recent snow that's covered up these layers there's a lurking avalanche beast out there.

[catbirdseat]

Hi toast, long time, no see. It has warmed up a lot since the cold snap. I'd be willing to bet all that surface hoar has long since melted. At higher elevations, it could persist.

[Toast]

From what I could see yesterday of the mountain tops, My guess is they're covered in a layer of freshies. Maybe some of the freeze thaw will percolate down and stabelize some of this.

[cracked]

Freezing level to go up to 10k in the next few days. That'll help.

[lummox]

it will all change.

[Bronco]

Toast said:

I don't want to sound like Chicken Little, but I was out last week and noticed huge TG crystal formations at ground and a pretty substantial layer of surface hoar all around from 3500' on up. With the long clear cold stint and recent snow that's covered up these layers there's a lurking avalanche beast out there.

 

Good call Tony!

 

http://www.seawfo.noaa.gov/products/SABSEA

[iain]

it's the pnw! anything dangerous gets buried and smashed within weeks if not days.

[Billygoat]

Thanks for the heads up Toast

 

This weekend hopefully will be good. Heading up to Herman Saddle

 

 

[David_Parker]

iain said:

it's the pnw! anything dangerous gets buried and smashed within weeks if not days.

 

For the most part, this is true. It's still good to keep track of what happens now for consideration all season long. Much more important to keep track in the Rockies from Utah to Jasper! Thank god for avalanche info being on the internet.

[Bronco]

iain said:

it's the pnw! anything dangerous gets buried and smashed within weeks if not days.

 

How about a good solid rain crust like the one that should form everywhere under 6,000' in the next couple of days? Hmm? What's going to smash that Mr. Prognosticator?

[iain]

days upon days of heavy wet snow dropped at or near the freezing level. what else?

[Toast]

It is pretty warm out there, so hopefully things will get smashed up, but it's good to keep track of these things over the season. Last year's big accidents were all due to persnickety persistent layers that didn't get smashed. Take a look at the snowpack analysis of the Cement Basin Avalanche. My understanding is that this was the same buried layer that struck up in Revelstoke (twice.) Anyway, discuss...

[Bronco]

iain said:

days upon days of heavy wet snow dropped at or near the freezing level. what else?

 

No way. Nothing can smash a rain crust that extends to the ground. Not even a Ninja who totally flips out. He could chop and stab all he wants but will make very little progress exept for big blishters on his hands.