Advice Wanted - Mt. Hood Conditions - 5/7-8

[jaydub624]

I was planning on climbing Hood with 4 other experienced climbers leaving TL on Thursday night (5/7). The weather hasn't been good all week but it is supposed to clear up and there is only a 10% chance of precip on Friday. Now one of party is saying we shouldn't go because all of the week's moisture, when combined with the expected warm temps on Friday, create an unreasonable avalanche danger. I understand being very cautious when it comes to the conditions and that lots of stupid people try to climb Hood, but I though I should check with the "experts" on CC to see what they thought before we bag the climb altogether.

 

Thanks for any advice.

Edited May 7, 2009 by jaydub624

[ivan]

slides are rare on the SS route, especially if you're up and back down to the hogs back by 9 or so.

 

who needs friends? if they don't wanna go, just solo the route - it's kinda more fun anyway, depending on the friends and your mp3 playlist

[eldiente]

2nd that, solo the SS side. Almost no risk of avy danger, occasional icefall in the afternoon. Even when I go up there with a partner I usually have my iPod on so it is more like a group solo than a partner climb.

 

 

[hippos_are_evil]

I'd check the NWAC forecast, it's saying high avy forecast:

http://www.nwac.us/products/av_fx_page.htm

 

So at least be smart about going up, don't be the guy who ends up on the news.

[Frikadeller]

You ss avy poo pooers, are, well, wrong. Slides ARE common coming off the west side of crater rock, as well along the upper portions of WCR. I have even seen evidence of slides coming off hogsback towards devils kitchen. Especially after the recent dump that we got this week, I would keep my eyes open. Not saying you should cancel your plans, just keep the mind thinking about it.

 

I'll be up there that week end, and I'll most likely be carrying probe, shovel, and beacon (as usual) because, well, that's just how my crew rolls.

[sean_beanntan]

I was at the top of palmer on Tuesday morning at 4am. Winds gusting to 70mph with avg at 45mph. Wind direction was all over the place with major wind transport and slab formation, check out the telemetry data for that time

http://www.nwac.us/products/archive/OSOTIM.2

 

and this is current

http://www.nwac.us/products/OSOTML

 

Regarding the Hogsback, I have had many snow pits fail on the slope between crater rock and the hogsback due to Low CT and HQ shears, columns jumping onto my lap after being isolated!!. It may not slide as WCR does, but it still can since in theory all the conditions for a slide are present quite often. I think this may in part bedue to the constant bootpacks that may have an anchoring effect on the slope, comments anyone?.

 

I suggest you still go down and play in the snow, you will learn nothing by staying off the mountain, just be prepared to turn around if conditions warrant.

[Ptown_Climber1]

All above points totally valid....I guess what I worry about most on the standard route in warmish conditions, however, is getting hammered by a piece of ice zinging down from above while traversing old chute or below the gates. That's why I'm always so amazed at how late some people are willing to climb it, well into the midmorning hours on a warm day.

 

Seems like the top of old chute would also warrant some avalanche worries, no?

[jaydub624]

These are all really helpful responses. I appreciate you sharing your expertise.

[WageSlave]

The Old Chute can slide in bad avy conditions.

 

 

This was back last month (when the avy conditions were HIGH). If you zoom in, 80% of the Old Chute ripped at once and the crown was about a foot and a half deep...

Edited May 7, 2009 by WageSlave

[Mtguide]

You don't have to be as high as traversing beneath Old Chute or the Pearly Gates to be in the line of fire. I've been peppered pretty good a number of times by stuff comming off of Crater Rock, well before getting up onto the Hogsback.

 

Regarding the NWAC forecast, note that it advises not to be lulled into a false sense of security just because "high" avalanche probability is forecast for Wed. and Thurs., but that "significant" avalanche conditions are expected to persist through the weekend.

And, even if the forecast were for "moderate" or even "low" probability, an avalanche occurring under a forecast of lesser danger will still mangle and suffocate you just as well as one occurring under "high" or "extreme" conditions. Even KGW meteorologist Matt Zaffino discussed Mt.Hood avalanche conditions on this evening's news, noting that there's been over 2 feet of new snow at the higher elevations over the last two days, and that the temperature gradient will be ascending over the weekend, producing what could be a steadily increasing threat over the weekend, in spite of normal settling day by day.

 

I'd be goddamn careful and pay close attention to the NWAC forecast; I know it's been a long winter and we're all going stir crazy; but the mountain will still be there another weekend, under more favorable conditions, and it's a pretty simple matter to ensure that you'll still be here, too, by waiting for a better day and not trying to push the mountain. Myself, I'll be skiing the groomed this weekend.

 

Above all, I'd recommend against attempting to solo the mountain under these conditions. Under this forecast, any avalanche will be wet, heavy snow, which will pack a tremendous wallop, quickly attaining great speed, and will immediately set up like concrete once it stops. There will be no question of trying to outrun, outski, "swim" or wade through this kind of slide--ridiculous notions in any avalanche scenario. Caught in such a slide, you'll come to a stop with arms and legs twisted in all kinds of crazy angles, mouth,nostrils,eyes and ears completely plugged with snow, instantly immobilized, hardly able to move even a finger. Your only chance would be that a partner or partners managed to avoid be caught, immediately noted your last position and possible direction and distance of fall, and are already initiating a beacon search with all possible haste. In lighter powder conditions, you could have up to ten or fifteen minutes before suffocating; in wet snow conditions, you may have five minutes, or even less if the speed and weight of the mass has managed to compress your chest and literally crush the life out of you.

 

And if you and your friends haven't been practicing your search and recovery skills,your chances decline further; or if you're carrying dinky plastic T-handle shovels instead of strong solid metal shovels and good beefy probes, the way this stuff is likely to solidify will make it very difficult to dig to you even if you are located.

 

The reason I can write this is because I was extremely lucky many years ago; part of one red-gloved hand was left showing and I was with 3 strong friends who saw where I disappeared and got me out in a big hurry, digging by hand. Even then it was a very near thing. It will instill huge respect for the mountain.

[Snowman_Jim]

The following is excerpted from the archives in avalanche-center.org

 

Note that:

 

1 - This was in May

2 - This was on the south side standard route

3 - Climbers were almost dumped into the bergshrund

4 - It was a clear weekend following a period of snowfall

5 - This occurred at 2:30 pm, not early in day

 

The following week it continued to snow. The next weekend it was nice again, and that was the weekend a Mazama group had a serious avalanche incident on WCR with one fatality and at least one seriously injured person.

 

The point here is not necessarily that you shouldn't climb, that's your decision. But make an informed decision and don't assume the south side route is immune to avalanches. If you decide to climb then carry beacons, shovels and probes and climb early in the day.

 

AVALANCHE (5/23/98) Mt. Hood, Oregon

 

Description:

 

"At approx. 2:30 PM on Saturday 5/23 a two layer class 2 avalanche was reported on the south side on Mt. Hood. This avalanche was triggered by a group of climbers descending the standard South Side climbing route. The slide initiated on the West side of the Hogs Back, and traveled approx. 500 ft with about a 30 ft wide path. 4 climbers below the trigger point were caught in the side. Fortunately the slide stopped prior to sweeping the party into the burgshrund crevasse."

 

Weather:

 

"Saturday 5/23 was a nice day on the mountain. Though whited out at Timberline lodge, once above about 8000 ft there was good visibility and it was sunny. This was a layered system though, and above 10,500 on Hood visibility dropped again to about 200 ft."

 

While Saturday may have been a nice day, it followed over a week of stormy and unsettled weather in the Oregon cascades. Unofficial and unconfirmed reports from the previous weekend gave new snow amounts of 25 cm or more. Additional snow probably accumulated through the week. The snow level had been forecast at about 5000 - 6000 feet, so temperatures at the crater elevations were probably cold.

 

Snowpack:

 

"Several people had dug pits on the mountain and the results did show an unstable condition existing on this aspect."

 

There are no additional details on the instability but the significant layers of new snow had fallen in different storms with different atmospheric conditions, and the sun was warming this new snow rapidly.

 

Terrain:

 

Climbers often believe, mistakenly, that the South Side climbing route has no significant avalanche terrain. Until Crater Rock is reached the terrain is not steep, but from Crater Rock up there are a number of areas where slides are possible and do occur in the right conditions. There are also terrain traps such as bergschrunds, and this group was very fortunate not be caught in one. Defining avalanche terrain is easy and is done in essentially any book or class. Recognizing it isn't always so easy and takes experience and awareness.

 

Summary:

 

Winter conditions can occur above treeline at any time of year, and are not uncommon in spring. Because the sun is more direct and the days longer the snowpack will absorb more energy during those first nice days than in winter.

 

Mountaineering routes, even those such as the South Side of Mt Hood, should be approached as climbing endeavors and objective hazards such as avalanches should be considered. Avalanche beacons and shovels should be carried, especially if there have been accumulations of snow recently.

 

Climbers should be off of slopes early in the day before they warm up. (2:30 pm is not early!) Numerous people had traveled in this area earlier without incident. While that may or may not have been wise it is likely that the increasing energy from exposure to the sun continued to weaken the snowpack until at some point people did get caught.

 

[jaydub624]

Thanks all for the great advice. I think I'm going to postpone my climb for now. I don't want to be "that guy" who is on the news. If that happened, I'd probably be permanently banned from CC!

[billbob]

Smart lad, but how many others will go regardless, because they planned it for this w/e or because they simply follow the climbers in front.

 

 

[dhrmabum]

Hey guys, some friends were thinking of going up and doing a little ice axe training on Sat. I told them of the avy warnings, but the question is, what elevation is safe? She was thinking of going to the top of Palmer, and practicing around there? Whatdaya think? Safe, or not? Thanks for any responses.

Edited May 7, 2009 by dhrmabum

[Maine-iac]

You will be fine at the top of palmer, it is almost flat. Just don't walk super far climbers right because there are some cracks over that way. The concern is right up around the general hogs back area.

 

I will most likely be up there saturday night. But I won't make the call to leave home until saturday morning, after re-reading the weather reports. On the plus side no precip is forecast for tomorrow or saturday, and I think very little fell today, so it is having 3 days to settle up.

 

p.s. I have a red jacket, and will be skiing.

[dhrmabum]

Thanks Maine-iac. Still not sure if we're going up there or a hike up Mt. Defiance. Trying to decide what would be better for a bit of training, as I'm hopefully climbing Hood in a week, on the 17th. But, maybe we'll be heading up to the upper Palmer area, and if so, I'll look for you in your red jacket. If I go, I'll probably take skis as well. Do you think skinning will be good? How far to go with this current Avy forecast? Ok to go to Illumination and ski down?

By the way, looks like it's snowing a bit right now, though probably lightly. . . Thanks again.

[letsroll]

Screw that I am headed to the north side. North side gullies, heck ya, that is where it is going to be. South side suckas...lol.

 

Yo maine-iac. I think I headed up saturday day only, play around on the south side and stay away from anything steep. Testing out the knee. Bright green soft shell, black pants on skis. Very hard to miss me, it would be good to meet you.

 

CC party on south side

[Frikadeller]

 

CC party on south side

 

 

I will also be there on saturday!

 

Look for a a goon on a splitboard wearing a green cap, red/gray jacket and a goofy look on his face, stop by and say hi!

[letsroll]

I am sorry I don't associate with riffraff spitboarders:laf:

 

see you up there.

Edited May 8, 2009 by letsroll

[WageSlave]

Haha. Oregon CCers are just one big South Side lovefest. Who's bringing the pizza and beer up to the top?

[Maine-iac]

I will just be relaxing at T-line parking lot saturday. I just got the new Alpinist and have not really looked at it. So look for the kid with the silver subaru, with the Ski The East stickers, and come and chat. I will probably be there mid/late afternoon. If you want my number PM me and maybe we can grab a brew saturday evening.

[Maine-iac]

I plan on being up on the summit around noon Let me know what to bring and i'll get it up there.

[jaydub624]

This is what I love about the climbing community (and specifically, CC): I post a message on here seeking advice about possible avy danger and the conversation "snowballs" (pun intended) into a meetup on the mountain. awesome.

[Plaidman]

I just read this report. I think I am going to skip this weekend right over to some rock climbing.....

 

Issued by The National Weather Service

Portland, OR

1:07 pm PDT, Fri., May. 8, 2009

 

100 PM PDT FRIDAY MAY 8 2009

 

... HIGH BACK COUNTRY AVALANCHE DANGER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN MT HOOD AREA...

A series of strong spring storms this week have deposited a significant amount of new snow to the mountains of the Pacific Northwest. Two strong cold frontal passages and additional precipitation with upper trough passages have deposited about 2 to 4 feet of new snow above about 6000 feet in the Mt Hood area and south Washington Cascades. There were also very strong southwest to westerly crest level winds with the snowfall building cornices along ridges and depositing wind slab layers on lee slopes.

 

This new snow should become very susceptible to the destabilizing affects of warming and sunshine anticipated through the weekend. Freezing levels should climb to about 7000 feet Saturday and over 8000 feet Sunday with significant sunshine. This weather should cause natural or triggered avalanches to be likely in steeper terrain throughout the region, but especially higher elevations and on the volcanoes where the greatest recent snow has likely been received.

 

Some of these slides may be large and potentially dangerous entraining significant volumes of snow as they descend. Slides beginning in higher terrain may travel long distances reaching valley bottoms and depositing significant debris. We cannot emphasize too strongly the increased danger these conditions pose through Saturday and Sunday.

 

We are urging potential backcountry travelers to avoid traveling in or near avalanche terrain until the recent snow has either slide or settled and stabilized over the coming days.

 

Edited May 8, 2009 by Plaidman

[billbob]

Thank You, NWS people !

At least the warnings are posted, hopefully they are read and understood by all.