JayB

Have you read Taleb's Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan? Reading can be challenging as he is a bit of a blowhard, but the concepts are interesting to consider. Nope - but I'll definitely add it to the list. Thanks for the rec. Heard the author of this book interviewed on NPR the other day, and also added it to the pile, along with this one.

Brigitte Bardot runs afoul of the speech-codes in Euroland. " Brigitte Bardot on trial for Muslim slur Tue Apr 15, 12:42 PM ET PARIS (Reuters) - French former film star Brigitte Bardot went on trial on Tuesday for insulting Muslims, the fifth time she has faced the charge of "inciting racial hatred" over her controversial remarks about Islam and its followers. Prosecutors asked that the Paris court hand the 73-year-old former sex symbol a two-month suspended prison sentence and fine her 15,000 euros ($23,760) for saying the Muslim community was "destroying our country and imposing its acts." Since retiring from the film industry in the 1970s, Bardot has become a prominent animal rights activist but she has also courted controversy by denouncing Muslim traditions and immigration from predominantly Muslim countries. She has been fined four times for inciting racial hatred since 1997, at first 1,500 euros and most recently 5,000. Prosecutor Anne de Fontette told the court she was seeking a tougher sentence than usual, adding: "I am a little tired of prosecuting Mrs Bardot." Bardot did not attend the trial because she said she was physically unable to. The verdict is expected in several weeks. French anti-racist groups complained last year about comments Bardot made about the Muslim feast of Eid al-Adha in a letter to President Nicolas Sarkozy that was later published by her foundation. Muslims traditionally mark Eid al-Adha by slaughtering a sheep or another animal to commemorate the prophet Abraham's willingness to sacrifice his son on God's orders. France is home to 5 million Muslims, Europe's largest Muslim community, making up 8 percent of France's population. "I am fed up with being under the thumb of this population which is destroying us, destroying our country and imposing its acts," the star of 'And God created woman' and 'Contempt' said. Bardot has previously said France is being invaded by sheep-slaughtering Muslims and published a book attacking gays, immigrants and the unemployed, in which she also lamented the "Islamisation of France." Too bad for her that her that she didn't have the wisdom to confine her twilight-tirades to McDonald's, Capitalism, and Americans...

There's certainly a mix of sentiments there, of which schadenfreude is a part, for sure. It depends quite a bit on whether the party in question was taken advantage of by others who knew better, or whether they knew better and were attempting to take advantage of others. Then there's the subsidies that are completely unjustifiable in economic or social terms, the fraud and conflicts of interest that permeate the real-estate sector, etc. Plenty of grist for the mill. WRT ERV's, I think what the author of the above text was trying to say was that it's likely that a germline infection with this particular ERV facilitated or played a significant role in the evolution of the placental interface - not that an embryo infected with the virus somehow got implanted in another organism and the consequent "infection" was the point source of this particular reproductive mechanism. Fascinating stuff, though. More on the topic, if you're interested. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/103/39/14390'>http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/103/39/14390 http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/103/39/14390

Well - at least they managed to keep the tariffs high on American exports to Columbia....

Asexual reproduction in primates (or any mammal) would be substantially more interesting. I find the biology of parasitic self replicating elements in genomes - particularly our own - fascinating. The molecular countermeasures that have co-evolved in order to help keep them in check are responsible for mediating sub-cellular defenses against exogenous viruses. In turn, many viruses have evolved mechanisms that destroy or cripple these cellular defenses. But that's not their only role, consider the following: "Endogenous retroviruses are retroviruses derived from ancient infections of germ cells in humans, mammals and other vertebrates; as such their proviruses are passed on to the next generation and now remain in the genome. Retroviruses are viruses that reverse-transcribe their RNA into DNA for integration into the host's genome. Most retroviruses (such as HIV-1) infect somatic cells, but some can also infect germline cells (cells that make eggs and sperm) and once they have done so and have been transmitted to the next generation, they are termed endogenous. Endogenous retroviruses can persist in the genome of their host for long periods. However, they are generally only infectious for a short time after integration as they acquire 'knockout' mutations during host DNA replication. They can also be partially excised from the genome by a process known as recombinational deletion. Many believe that they play a key role in evolution as well. Endosymbiotic ERV's in mammals During pregnancy in viviparous mammals (all mammals except Monotremes), ERVs are activated and produced in high quantities during the implantation of the embryo. They are currently known to act as immunodepressors, protecting the embryo from its mother's immune system. Also viral fusion proteins apparently cause the formation of the placental syncytium in order to limit the exchange of migratory cells between the developing embryo and the body of the mother (something an epithelium will not do sufficiently, as certain blood cells are specialized to be able to insert themselves between adjacent epithelial cells). The ERV is a virus similar to HIV (which causes AIDS in humans). The immunodepressive action was the initial normal behavior of the virus, similar to HIV, the fusion proteins were a way to spread the infection to other cells by simply merging them with the infected one (HIV does this too). It is believed that the ancestors of modern vivipary mammals evolved after an infection by this virus, enabling the fetus to survive the immune system of the mother. [1] The human genome project found several thousand ERVs classified into 24 families." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_retrovirus Isn't that astounding? I actually find that more interesting than ARM resets, but ARM resets are more accessible. I've had an interest in mass-hysterias, particularly the financial variety - since reading Charles Mackay's "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds," after hearing about the book (I think it was referenced in the WSJ) about sixteen years ago. I think the interest was only heightened when I had a front row seat consisting of tens of thousands of conversations with individual investors during the height of the tech-bubble. When the deviation of home prices from historical means couldn't be explained by reductions in the interest rates, rising personal incomes or asset values, it started to look to me like we were in a classic bubble, driven by loose credit and mass-psychology. That's interesting in it's own right. Beyond that - I enjoy data driven arguments, particularly when I think I've got the better analysis, and then there's the trainwreck aspect of it all. The last bit would be more intruiging on a remote-analytical level if I didn't think that all of us are passengers, irrespective of whether we've been stoking the furnace or not.

me too. Keep your eyes on Europe, then...

Yeah - the spread between treasuries and the prime rate is something like 10 standard deviations beyond the normal range. The spread was 5 standard deviations during the height of the LTCM debacle, or so I read somewhere. Treasury yields have got to be close to negative in real-terms. Reverse carry-trade, here we come...

In real terms, Florida recovered from the 1920's bust in the mid nineties or thereabouts. Between the inventory overhang, hurricanes, and their brilliant plan to have the public assume all of the risk from the said storms (way to stick it to the man!), they're as well positioned as anyone to take the title this time around.

True - I think when you combine the subsidies and inflation you might just have enough recklessness on the fiscal and monetary sides to get the job done, at least in nominal terms - which is pretty much all that most people care about. Yeaha.

Seems to be unearthing itself, one reset at a time. Looks like the home-builders are all set though, now that Congress voted to extend the loss-back provision from two to five years at part of the "foreclosure prevention act." More on the way, I imagine. I don't think it will be possible to close the tax-adjusted delta between rents and mortgages with subsidies, but something tells me that Congress will take a mighty run at it.

Exhibit A: http://democrats.senate.gov/dpc/dpc-new.cfm?doc_name=lb-110-2-35

"The option-ARM product," Killinger said on the conference call, "is a key flagship product for our company." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004347122_wamu14.html Related: "WaMu annual meeting: director Pugh resigns, executive bonus plan to be revised." http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004350626_webwamu15.html

I certainly don't discard that contention at all. I think it's an indisputable fact. What I've been trying to argue against is arguing against is the notion that all of our concepts of right and wrong have their ultimate roots in religion or philosophy. I remember seeing a show quite a few years ago where a non-alpha chimpanzee discovered that he could frighten and intimidate his peers by banging an empty gas-can against rocks, trees, and whatever else was nearby. This went on for quite a while, and whenever he banged the gas can on something, his peers winced, crouched, and generally signaled their fear and submission with gestures that were both dramatic and overt. Then the rainy season began, and started off with a mighty thunderclap and a crackling bolt of lightning, at which point even the gas-can chimp joined his peers and arguably outdid his fellow chimps in his efforts to supplicate and prostrate himself before the giant monkey in the sky....

It depends how you define "morals." I think that in these discussions, people often use the term to describe an abstract set of ideas about right and wrong, and also as a label that encompasses anything that governs human behavior. I don't think that there are many people out there who are arguing that morality, when defined as an abstract set of ideas about what's wrong and what's right, is genetically programmed. When you define morality in this way, it clearly doesn't make sense to describe the set of instincts that govern the behavior of social animals as "moral." That's obviously not the case, and it doesn't even make sense to discuss the "morality" of involuntary behavior in non-human animals when morality is defined in this way. What people do often argue is that the instincts that shape, inform, and in many cases govern our behavior have deep evolutionary roots that predate our existence as a species - much less our capacity to speak or engage in abstract thought - by hundreds of millions of years. Lust, hate, envy, malice, anger, fear, joy, trust, suspicion have all been with us since times long before we had the capacity to recognize them, much less describe them in abstract terms and assign them to particular moral categories. The same is true for virtually all human behaviors that we subject to moral evaluation. Abstract notions of morality influence human behavior in a manner that extends beyond our instincts, but they certainly aren't the source of those instincts. It's not for philosophy alone that we don't eat our children.

Many animals will, on occasion, eat their young. Probably not a big deal in evolutionary terms if the ratio of offspring to parent is sufficiently high, as in the case of a rainbow trout. There's a fairly strong selective bias away from consuming one's young in species that produce relatively few offspring, all of which require a significant biological investment. What exactly are you arguing here? Surely not that humans lacked the capacity for pair bonding, breeding, parenting, happiness, anger, love, hate, etc prior to the advent of religion and philosophy?

A set of behaviors and instincts that govern reciprocal behaviors, the rearing of offspring are present in all social animals. These traits are as much a product of evolution as their morphology, or the ordering of base pairs within their genomes. There's no escaping this fact. There's no disputing the fact religion and philosophy have influenced human morality, but it's absurd to claim that either are the source of our moral instincts.

Read "Letter to a Christian Nation," if you haven't already...

Tavis Smiley seems to think so. The response he's gotten for his critiques of Obama kind of reminds me of the political equivalent of what happened to Denzel Washington's character at the end of "Training Day."

"VIRGINIA CITY n The Yellowstone Club is “languishing in a liquidity crisis” and on the verge of bankruptcy, according to Edra Blixseth, who is in court this week trying to have her estranged husband, Tim Blixseth, removed as the club’s manager and banned from its offices. She also is asking that she be reinstated as the club’s chief operating officer. “It’s completely baseless,” Tim Blixseth said here Monday, in a room packed with 12 lawyers. He said the legal move by his wife of 25 years is an “attempt to circumvent the family court process in California,” where the couple is locked in a bitter divorce proceeding. “It’s an end-run attempt on her part,” he said. It’s no secret that the club has been having some troubles lately. * It missed a deadline to pay a $20 million settlement and a deal to sell the club to a Boston investor fell through last week. Edra Blixseth maintains the problems are much bigger than that. Tim Blixseth “has not been managing the Yellowstone Club for at least the past year and the club has no cash to operate and appears to be insolvent,” she said in court papers. “There is no competent evidence that (Tim) Blixseth has raised or can raise sufficient cash to solve the crisis and stabilize the club without effecting ‘fire sale’ lot sales. He has also lost the confidence of the club’s creditors and employees.” Bob Sumpter, vice president of real estate development at the club, denied all of those assertions during testimony Monday. He agreed that payment had been delayed for a number of local vendors, but that they had been paid over the weekend after a $15 million land sale closed last week. That debt amounted to roughly $7 million, he said later, and the late payments came with interest. He said Tim Blixseth has been an able manager and that he’d always been able to reach him with questions. After settling its bills, the club has $4.6 million in the bank, he said, adding that it sold $95 million or $96 million worth of real estate last year and $30 million to $35 million worth so far this year. Timely payments are being made on a $375 million loan from international financier Credit Suisse, he said, and the principal owed on that loan is now about $306 million. However, some of those sales are being made from the club to other companies related to Tim Blixseth. One company, called Overlook Partners, made the $15 million purchase last week and another is poised to pay approximately $56 million for a large parcel near the resort’s ski base in a couple months, Sumpter said. That property eventually will contain luxury condominiums, he added. Cash from those sales will be used to fund the club’s operations, he said, and sales are taking place at market values. “We sell property,” Sumpter said. “That’s what we do.” Edra Blixseth’s lawyer, Deborah Klar, who also represents her in the divorce, maintained that Tim Blixseth has been using the club’s assets to buy expensive properties in other countries for his “Yellowstone Club World,” a set of exotic hotels and resorts, plus jets and yachts. “Assets are being drained from The Yellowstone Club to pay for Yellowstone Club World,” she told Judge Loren Tucker. “Much of the information being presented here is being cherry picked.” The club’s obligations far exceed the $4.6 million of cash on hand, she said. The couple disagrees over who owns the larger share of the club. A company called Blixseth Family Investments, which Edra Blixseth controls, owns 4.8 percent of the club. But she maintains she also owns half the shares in Blixseth Group, Inc., which belongs to her and Tim Blixseth, which owns 82 percent of the shares. Those shares haven’t been allocated, Tim Blixseth said in an interview. The California court could decide to award her cash instead of shares. He said she owns only 4.8 percent of the club’s shares at this point. Edra Blixseth presented to the court an affidavit from J. Gary Peters, chief executive officer of 1800 Investment Group, offering a capital infusion of $50 million, but only if Tim Blixseth is removed from management. That money would allow the club to pay Greg LeMond and other minority investors the $20 million the club owes them and has agreed to pay them, Edra Blixseth said in her legal filing. “The Yellowstone Club will suffer irreparable harm unless (Edra) Blixseth is reinstated as the club’s chief operating officer and allowed to stabilize the club’s business,” she said in court papers. Through the family investment company, she is trying to intervene in LeMond’s lawsuit, even though she is also listed as a plaintiff in that suit. LeMond’s lawyer, Jim Goetz of Bozeman, said he neither opposes nor supports the attempt at intervention. “We just want to get paid,” he said. The hearing continues Thursday, but Tucker said he is moving the proceedings to Dillon." http://bozemandailychronicle.com/articles/2008/04/08/news/10blixseth.txt

Glad to see the ACLU is on top of this one.

The political side was merely amusing, the fact that she was issued a citation by the police for her comment is the only aspect of the story that actually concerns me.

I think it's a semantic argument. "systemic risk" to me is people believing in the great realestate ponzi scheme that will make them rich so buying a $1.1million 2.5 bed home is a good investment guaranteed to appreciate when someone can rent a 1 bedroom closer to the beach for $900/mo. That is a great systemic risk "pointsource risk" to me is people believing that BSC and company's like will ever be allowed to fail so there's no risk in being BSC or doing business with BSC. The profit for point sources tend to be higher so they earn more ire from me. Uno Mas... http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-cost-of-maintaining-ownership-in-the-current-crisis/

Sad to say that we were talking Iran here, and the religious thought police do not allow much. Here's a Burkini for your nighttime fantasy's though: No need to fantasize, Bill... http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002389078_muslimswim.html

Democrat and (now former) Obama delegate issued a citation by the local police for the following: "Carpentersville Trustee Linda Ramirez Sliwinski ticketed for calling boys in tree 'monkeys' She vows to fight disorderly conduct charge for comments made to 2 boys in neighbor's tree By Carolyn Starks | Tribune reporter Carpentersville Trustee Linda Ramirez Sliwinski vowed Monday to fight a citation she received over the weekend for a comment that apparently offended her African-American neighbors. Ramirez Sliwinski said she saw two boys climbing a tree next door to her home about 1 p.m. Saturday and asked them to stop. The mother of one of the boys called police after Ramirez Sliwinski referred to the children, ages 8 and 9, as monkeys. Ramirez Sliwinski, who is Hispanic, was issued a citation alleging that she violated a village ordinance prohibiting disorderly conduct. The ordinance bans conduct that disturbs or alarms people, and one of the boys told police he was scared by Ramirez Sliwinski's comment, Police Cmdr. Michael Kilbourne said. The citation carries a fine of $75. "She was not arrested. She was not fingerprinted. It is a local ordinance violation," Kilbourne said. The mother told police her son and a friend were playing in a tree in front of their house in the 0-99 block of Sparrow Road when Ramirez Sliwinski came outside and told them to quit playing in the tree like monkeys, Kilbourne said. Ramirez Sliwinski, who has been an opponent of efforts by some on the Village Board to crack down on illegal immigrants, said she meant no racial undertones by her comment. She said the parents were outside, but she intervened because she was concerned about the boys' safety and because the small magnolia tree was being damaged. "I went over to the kids and told them to get out of the tree," Ramirez Sliwinski said. The father of one of the boys told her it was none of her business, she said, and "I calmly said the tree is not there for them to be climbing in there like monkeys." There has been friction between Ramirez Sliwinski and her neighbors in the past. She said she has told them to turn down loud music and has instructed them on how to properly use the village's new garbage bins. Ramirez Sliwinski said she intends to contest the citation in an effort to force the neighbors to talk to her. "I have to do what I have to do to protect myself," she said. "I have to fight this ticket." Ramirez Sliwinski said the citation and the ongoing turmoil on the Village Board have made it unlikely that she will run for re-election next year when her term expires. Attempts to reach the neighbors for comment were unsuccessful. "My take on this is that it is really being blown out of proportion," Village President Bill Sarto said. "To a great extent, you have to take the remarks and put them in proper context. The trustee saw children playing in a tree, and she made an observation that they should be careful because they are acting like monkeys. Had they not been in a tree, it could be inappropriate." Sarto and Ramirez Sliwinski have been allies on the board. Freelance reporter Carolyn Rusin contributed to this report. cstarks@tribune.com" http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-carpenter-trustee-both-08apr08,0,568283.story

I pretty much agree with you, but I'm not sure what else they could have done. Looked to me like they thought we might be on the verge of a global run on investment banks, and the IB equivalent of the FDIC is still languishing on a whiteboard somewhere in academia, I suspect. Most financial institutions that played the subprime game, especially with leverage, have gotten a royal cornholing, and have had to beg for capital infusions. We definitely need to reform the rules to increase transparency, compartmentalize risk, etc - and I would have liked to see more pain and contrition, but it's not as though they've been so thoroughly shielded from the pain that the old status quo has persisted. Anyhow - at the end of the day, I just don't think you can make the same "systemic risk" argument on behalf of the guy with the neg-am, I/O, pay-option ARM on his McMansion. Perhaps that's not the way things out to be, but that's the way they are.