Jake Posted October 21, 2003 Share Posted October 21, 2003 So what is your assessment on this winter? Will it kick ass or suck ass? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Posted October 22, 2003 Author Share Posted October 22, 2003 Nobody wants to guess?? http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2100.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinfox Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 33% warmer!?!?! Â SHIT! That is not good for my ice climbing fantasies. Â Anybody wanna start a scrabble club? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_b Posted October 22, 2003 Share Posted October 22, 2003 Alpinfox said: 33% warmer!?!?! Â SHIT! That is not good for my ice climbing fantasies. Â Anybody wanna start a scrabble club? Â thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â jake: there was a similar thread a few weeks ago in the climber's board Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpinfox Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 Â Oh yeah... Â Hehe... Â I knew that. Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ducknut Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 my prediction is that there will be a fing ton of snow, ice and all sorts of sunny deep powder days. Why you ask? Â Cause my orthopedic surgeon just told me that I need reconstructive surgery on my blown ACL. No climbing for 6 months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpine_Tom Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal? Â Unless they're trying to say that temperatures will by 33% HIGHER than normal (which doesn't sound like what the accompanying text is trying to say) this looks like one of those content-lite maps publications like USA Today like so well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j_b Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 Alpine_Tom said: thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal? Â i don't believe so. 33% is the probability of the anomaly so it should be the difference between the forecast probability and the probability of each possibility (above/normal/below) in the historical record. so the modeled forecast probabilities should be something like 66.3% for above normal temps and the balance for normal/below. assuming each category has a 33.3% chance occurrence in the historical record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelawgoddess Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 wtf? it WILL snow. that's all that matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisT Posted October 23, 2003 Share Posted October 23, 2003 tlg - where are you now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelawgoddess Posted October 24, 2003 Share Posted October 24, 2003 ChrisT said: tlg - where are you now? Â portland. but not for long! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sal Posted October 24, 2003 Share Posted October 24, 2003 all i know is that there was snow at my house this AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelawgoddess Posted October 24, 2003 Share Posted October 24, 2003 sal said: all i know is that there was snow at my house this AM Â wtf do you live? lucky dog!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sal Posted October 24, 2003 Share Posted October 24, 2003 i'm sure it's gone by now but it's a start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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