Jake Posted October 21, 2003 Posted October 21, 2003 So what is your assessment on this winter? Will it kick ass or suck ass? Quote
Jake Posted October 22, 2003 Author Posted October 22, 2003 Nobody wants to guess?? http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2100.htm Quote
Alpinfox Posted October 22, 2003 Posted October 22, 2003 33% warmer!?!?! Â SHIT! That is not good for my ice climbing fantasies. Â Anybody wanna start a scrabble club? Quote
j_b Posted October 22, 2003 Posted October 22, 2003 Alpinfox said: 33% warmer!?!?! Â SHIT! That is not good for my ice climbing fantasies. Â Anybody wanna start a scrabble club? Â thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â jake: there was a similar thread a few weeks ago in the climber's board Quote
Alpinfox Posted October 23, 2003 Posted October 23, 2003 Â Oh yeah... Â Hehe... Â I knew that. Â Â Quote
Ducknut Posted October 23, 2003 Posted October 23, 2003 my prediction is that there will be a fing ton of snow, ice and all sorts of sunny deep powder days. Why you ask? Â Cause my orthopedic surgeon just told me that I need reconstructive surgery on my blown ACL. No climbing for 6 months!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote
Alpine_Tom Posted October 23, 2003 Posted October 23, 2003 thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal? Â Unless they're trying to say that temperatures will by 33% HIGHER than normal (which doesn't sound like what the accompanying text is trying to say) this looks like one of those content-lite maps publications like USA Today like so well. Quote
j_b Posted October 23, 2003 Posted October 23, 2003 Alpine_Tom said: thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'. Â So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal? Â i don't believe so. 33% is the probability of the anomaly so it should be the difference between the forecast probability and the probability of each possibility (above/normal/below) in the historical record. so the modeled forecast probabilities should be something like 66.3% for above normal temps and the balance for normal/below. assuming each category has a 33.3% chance occurrence in the historical record. Quote
thelawgoddess Posted October 23, 2003 Posted October 23, 2003 wtf? it WILL snow. that's all that matters. Quote
thelawgoddess Posted October 24, 2003 Posted October 24, 2003 ChrisT said: tlg - where are you now? Â portland. but not for long! Quote
sal Posted October 24, 2003 Posted October 24, 2003 all i know is that there was snow at my house this AM Quote
thelawgoddess Posted October 24, 2003 Posted October 24, 2003 sal said: all i know is that there was snow at my house this AM Â wtf do you live? lucky dog!!! Quote
sal Posted October 24, 2003 Posted October 24, 2003 i'm sure it's gone by now but it's a start! Quote
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