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This Winter...


Jake

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Alpinfox said:

33% warmer!?!?!

 

SHIT! That is not good for my ice climbing fantasies.

 

Anybody wanna start a scrabble club?

 

thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. smile.gif and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'.

 

jake: there was a similar thread a few weeks ago in the climber's board

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thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. smile.gif and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'.

 

So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal?

 

Unless they're trying to say that temperatures will by 33% HIGHER than normal (which doesn't sound like what the accompanying text is trying to say) this looks like one of those content-lite maps publications like USA Today like so well.

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Alpine_Tom said:

thankfully, it's 33% chance that temps will be higher than normal. smile.gif and if i understand well they mean 'slightly higher than normal'.

 

So, doesn't that mean that there's a 67% chance that temperatures will be normal or lower than normal?

 

i don't believe so. 33% is the probability of the anomaly so it should be the difference between the forecast probability and the probability of each possibility (above/normal/below) in the historical record. so the modeled forecast probabilities should be something like 66.3% for above normal temps and the balance for normal/below. assuming each category has a 33.3% chance occurrence in the historical record.

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