Weather outlook for 13 - 20 June 2020

[Nick.Battaglia]

Out-of-towner here with a cascades trip planned for next week although the weather reports are not looking great. We have a lower risk profile but had hoped to get up some moderately technical routes on any of either baker, hood, rainier, adams. We actually have a permit for liberty ridge, summiting the 19th. What can locals say about the weather next week, how smart would it be to drive out and camp and hope for a weather window give the general weather pattern that's predicted right now? Is it still too far out to say?

[JasonG]

It is too far out to know for sure about the 19th, but it appears unsettled into the extended:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Extended models in good 
  agreement with the upper level low moving out of the area early  
  Sunday. 
  This is the best chance for a short dry spell with a weak and  
  transitory upper level ridge moving through during the day. Yet  
  another system arriving on Monday keeping the cool and wet June  
  weather pattern intact. Yet another upper level low/trough behind 
  the front Tuesday for more shower activity. There is some  
  disagreement in the models Wednesday with the ECMWF kicking the  
  trough out of the area for a dry day. The GFS does have the trough 
  east of the area but not far enough for a dry forecast. Ensembles 
  in both models have about 20 percent of the solutions with some  
  light precipitation. Will keep a slight chance of showers in the  
  forecast Wednesday. High temperatures will remain below normal 
  through the extended period with upper 50s to lower 60s warming  
  into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.  
  Felton 

This time of year the Stuart range is a good backup if the high peaks are getting hit, which is often the case.  Liberty Ridge is really one that you want perfect weather on (meaning clear skies AND low wind).  There have been a number of accidents/fatalities over the years on that route related to poor weather.  Actually, I sort of think that is true for all the volcanoes.  They have a way of magnifying whatever weather is around.

[AlecE]

Maybe I'm getting lazy with my weather game, but at this point I just check the Hood mountain forecast (PDX based) and if it looks gross I just assume all the volcanoes are out and pack the biking/rock climbing gear instead. We do get some regional variation, but the volcanoes always have the worst weather. 

[DPS]

Liberty Ridge is tough for out of town climbers. The weather is a crap shoot until after July 4th and by then the route is on its way to being out of shape. 

 

[danthemtn_man]

If you look at the weather.gov forecast discussion they reference that the Extended forecast is still pretty shaky https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=SEW&issuedby=SEW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

I am local (Seattle) and looking to ski via Fuhrer finger on Sun, if that helps at all, but I am also apprehensive about weather. 

[Kameron]

Looks decent, although with all the fresh snow you will have wintry conditions without much/any consolidation. And probably no track in the route.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

Edited June 16, 2020 by Kameron