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anyone ever told you you sound like 'that guy on the radio'?

I'm surprised that there's not widespread agreement on this fundamental point. I don't think that you have to be an anti-tax fanatic to agree with this either. I am not sure what the solution to this is, but if I had a magic wand the first thing I'd do is eliminate any tax advantage associated with real estate versus any other asset class when it comes to capital gains. The second thing I'd do is set a cap on property tax increases that's directly correlated with the core inflation rate and population growth. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a popular issue when the YOY gains stall out. As someone who's lived in CA I dislike the impact of prop 13. It's consistantly underfunded the basic functions of government. There are people living oceanside who pay $1k a year in property taxes - because they bought in 30 years ago. Well networked into local politics they have a distinct advantage in getting their wishes cattered to, but pay a disproportionately small burden (or receive a substantially better return on their tax 'investment' when they sell at an increased price). It's created even larger incentives for local governments to encourage large, expensive new housing construction, and increase property turnover - it's the only way the managers budgets will increase. Starving the beast doesn't work

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-soft21jul21,0,3311200.story?coll=la-home-headlines Housing Expert: 'Soft Landing' Off Mark By David Streitfeld Times Staff Writer July 21, 2006 Leslie Appleton-Young is at a loss for words. The chief economist of the California Assn. of Realtors has stopped using the term "soft landing" to describe the state's real estate market, saying she no longer feels comfortable with that mild label. "Maybe we need something new. That's all I'm prepared to say," Appleton-Young said Thursday. The shift in language comes as debate over the real estate market is intensifying. The long-awaited drop-off is happening, but there's little agreement about how brutal the landing will be. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in congressional testimony Thursday that the national housing downturn so far appears orderly. At about the same time, however, D.R. Horton Inc. Chief Executive Donald Tomnitz was telling analysts that the home builder's sales in June "absolutely fell off the Richter scale." Horton, the nation's largest builder of residential housing, has numerous projects in California. For real estate optimists, the phrase "soft landing" conveyed the soothing notion that the run-up in values over the last few years would be permanent. It wasn't a bubble, it was a new plateau. The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction from a 2% slip to a 16.8% drop. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn't feel comfortable any longer using "soft landing." "I'm sorry I ever made that comment," she said Thursday. "When I get my new term, I'll let you know." If there's one group in California still unreservedly bullish on real estate, it might be the throngs lining up to take the licensing exams. The state Department of Real Estate recently reported that the total number of agents in the state passed 500,000 in May for the first time. That's one agent for every 55 adults in the state. Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: "We're expecting a fairly significant shakeout."

that India and China have fought a war over before. And here's a $41 billion island

I learned iain is posting from his ex-ex-ex-gf's computer. I thought that avatar was long dead!

DJ Shadow: Endtroducing Getz & Gilberto Bebel Gilberto United Future Organisation Dmitri From Paris Tapping into the hate vain? Quit swiping my turf. You should try LA. The pollution, expense, sprawl, and nastiness of the East Coast combined with the tabla rasa society, intellectual vacuousness and kneejerk politics of the West Coast. At least I can get a bottleblond silicone breast blowjob between freerange organic electroshocked half caffeinated pesto chicken breast and an authentic colon clogging chili colorado chimichanga

margin loans are lovely Leveraging can be useful; it's also risky. You and I might be in agreeance that average person is a poor manager and quantifier of risk.

net result currently = paper gain

I thought that was what Bend was for?

er, so where will Seattle be when everyone fucks off? Only a few areas are desirable enough and have the economy to support high housing prices. In 2008-09 when the Aerospace industry crashes, again (you think record sales are sustainable? ), Microsoft has slashed Redmond jobs to keep margins in control when nobody is willing to pay for Windows Vista, and the millionaires minted have all moved to Tuscany, what, exactly, will support Seattle? Starbucks? Look to the rustbelt where you can buy FLW homes for <$300k

Are you mormon?

But the do end up making nice little cogs in the corporate machine.... Curious how much parental angst is due to increased transparency - now you can map the registered sex offenders in your area online, get updates of crime, etc.

Yes, well US citizens feel safer walking at night http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_per_of_saf_wal_in_dar-crime-perception-safety-walking-dark Decidely imperfect, but the best I could find

That was my point - we are decidly not near the bottom, but hardly the cream. No reason to live in fear unless you like the media pulling your strings. It's a composite ranking and hardly perfect methodology - if you'll notice Zimbabwe is very high in violent crime but low in car thefts Murders per capita may be a better statistic: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita

Not sure if you can support 'just about everyone else in the world' except to fulfill your panglossian predilection. Eighth highest in the world (per capita) by one estimate

Yes Virginia, people die.

Heh, Buttonwood of today:

Real Estate always appreciates JayB, you wouldn't want to throw your money away!

There's plenty of down here - bet you downloaded some last night not so much breeding unless you hablar. We're like a cancer, Oregon's been infected, soon it will be gone

California, always ahead of the curve

Try showing up at the climbing gym just before/after the "kids league" is practicing

You found that the peaks in Olympia and Hope interesting?

Are sports teams really populist? Except for a few rustbelt cities like Buffalo, a majority of the fans in attendance have been uppermiddle, or upper class, white and male. Hardly the populist demographic. Increasingly team support is based on things like a winning record, or historical, rather than current alignments.

Jeesh, spray doesn't even have hot lesbian fantasies anymore

nope, secret oregon sport mixed crag