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Yep, it's that time of year again.

 

Here's the first of the season's Avalanche Statement from USFS/NWAC'S Kenny Kramer:

 

Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center Seattle Washington

 

1314 PM PST Tue Nov 15 2011

 

 

 

 

 

Statement Updated Tuesday, November 15, 2011

 

Next Significant Storm Expected Wednesday and Thursday

 

 

 

About 6 inches up to 2 feet of snowfall accumulated in the Olympics and near and west of the crest in the Cascades during storms on Friday and over the weekend. In most places the snow was still anchored by terrain and vegetation. But a couple of small triggered avalanches were reported at Sauk Mountain and Mt Baker via Turns All Year on Saturday and Sunday. Cracking and whomping was also reported from White Pass on Sunday via Turns All Year. This seems to have been caused by new snow over crusts from late last week over faceted snow on a smooth ground surface. So there were also areas of unstable snow.

 

Persistent convergence zones affected Snoqualmie Pass Monday where an additional 6 inches of snow fell. The convergence shifted north over Stevens Pass early Tuesday depositing up to 4 to 6 inches of snow.

 

The next strong storm is indicated by computer models to cross the Northwest on Wednesday with orographic showers persisting into Thursday. This should cause another period of strong winds and heavy snow at moderate and higher elevations. Snow levels are expected to begin relatively low through much of Wednesday with a period of rising freezing levels late Wednesday and early Wednesday night to affect mainly the Snoqualmie Pass area with a change to rain before cooler air again lowers snow levels overnight Wednesday.

 

The upcoming storm should deposit another 1 to 2 feet of snow from early Wednesday through later Thursday along with periods of strong and shifting crest level winds.

 

These weather conditions Wednesday into Thursday are likely to build fairly widespread new soft and wind slab layers on lee or other slopes, especially at higher elevations with less terrain and vegetative anchoring. This danger should be greatest on slopes with perennial snow or a smooth ground surface. Similar conditions should be seen in unopened ski areas that are not yet performing regular avalanche control.

 

The Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center normally begins full winter operations when there is significant snow cover at moderate and lower elevations. We will continue to issue weather and avalanche statements as conditions warrant until there is a change to full winter operations.

 

Let’s all have a safe and enjoyable winter!

 

Kramer/US Forest Service NW Weather and Avalanche Center

 

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