so what's the prognosis for next week starting on

[ricko]

sunday june 20th? the conditions blog makes it sound like getting to muir is no longer an issue and that emmons via camp shurman is in *stellar condition* with an overall bake and consolidation of everything that's fallen recently. unfortunately, the link the the id is broken.

 

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL

10500 FEET. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html this isn't looking so bad. am i missing something

[TyneRock]

Don't know about Emmons. Getting *to* Muir isn't an issue. Safely going beyond it? The weather and snow conditions have been so bizarre it's hard to plan. If you're looking at the Muir-DC/Ingraham route, summit traffic is only just resuming after 2-1/2 weeks. A group of three did summit on Sunday morning, taking a pretty unconventional line on Ingraham, which shows no signs that a big avalanche ever occurred—it's all snowed over and windblown, like someone hit the "reset" button up there. After baking in on Sunday, and the favorable report from the rangers that afternoon, I'm guessing groups climbed yesterday and this morning.

 

But to ask today how it's going to be on June 20? Given the fickle conditions so far this month, you won't have a good answer until the weekend.

[saxybrian]

http://mountrainierconditions.blogspot.com/2010/06/ingraham-direct-2010.html

 

Ingraham Direct 2010

Ingraham Direct - June 13th

 

Ok, folks. Here's the deal! Camp Muir has been getting some sun for the last couple of days. Temperatures were creeping up into the 40s today. There was very little wind until midday. Philippe and I went up onto the flats at around 10:00 a.m. and up onto the first hill above the flats at around 11,500 feet.

 

There hasn't been a whole lot of new precipitation on the upper mountain in the last two days. Today the first independent groups headed up above the top of the Disappointment Cleaver. A few folks braved the winds near the top and summited.

 

Philippe and I dug a pit and did a pretty complete profile. There is that pesky layer of graupel down about 35 cm, but we couldn't get anything to move with a compression test or an extended column test. We did do a fully isolated rutschblock, and we did get it to fail on the first hop (rb4), but the failure was very poor, Q3, broken, and only the partial block. This was a 35 degree slope.

 

Granted, there's a great amount of spatial variability on the glacier... The ski penetration, even during the heat of midday, was only an inch or so. The boot penetration was about 15 cm. The top 10-15 cm was sun-affected and starting to get a little wet. Crampons were balling up. The guide service (RMI) went by us when we were digging our pit. Two guides were doing a reconnaisance to establish a new route up the Ingraham.

 

 

Here's a pit profile.

 

 

 

 

 

There's been a lot of these snowpits dug up high lately. In all my time at Mt. Rainier, I can't think of when I've known of so many people really worried about the avalanche conditions in June to this extent. This alarm is well warranted, indeed, it may be time to start making these pits a little more part of the operation while we're climbing. However, it's difficult to put these data into perspective because not many of us have made a habit digging full snowpits above 11,000 feet this time of year. It's hard to say what we've been climbing on all these years anyway.

 

Stick with what we know and fundamentals we've learned in training. It's been a cold and wet spring. The upper mountain has received a lot of snow in May and early June. We need to be wary of avalanche conditions. However, after a few days of warm, clear weather, it's time to start thinking about getting up the hill.

 

If you take a look at the historical data and compare it to the current snowpack at Paradise, you'll quickly see that we're almost 140% of normal. This is a huge snowpack for this time of year. We really made up for the drought this winter. As we've placed the glacier stakes this spring for the mass/balance studies, we've observed that there is at least a meter more snow than usual for this time of year (7.5 meters compared to 6.0 meters in the standard places).

 

This means that the less common / non-standard routes that so many of us love to climb may stay in shape longer. Gib Ledges look great, which is crazy for this time of year! The Ingraham is largely unbroken; this is about the time of year when we go over to the DC, but we'll be on the ID for a while yet. The Kautz looks sweet. Nisqually Ice Cliff is doable still. The Emmons-Winthrop looks awesome! The Finger looks nice.

 

The weather over the next 48 hours looks good. The snow got baked today up to about 12,000 feet. This is good. Over the next 48 hours, colder air is moving in, and there will be a marine layer in the sound.

 

So be cautious, but be out there! Take a shot, but take it all in and consider all the variables.

 

[Dane]

Nick Hall wrote a great report. Nice of you to repeat it here Brian.

 

You might want to make it clear that the info posted is not YOUR info by adding quotes.

 

Because it gets confusing and suspect when repeated out of context on the Rainier blog, Nick sez: "In all my time at Mt. Rainier, I can't think of when I've known of so many people really worried about the avalanche conditions in June to this extent."

 

as compared to this:

 

On cc.com, Brian sez: "I'm from Texas, so Rainier is quiet a trip for me. I've done 2x before this trip, made it to the summit once.."

 

Conditions are getting better as it warms up. And while still unseasonably cool the moisture we are getting hopely will be rain low instead of snow up high. Some sun will settle everything down quickly as the most recent climbs on the Ingraham show. This last Saturday and Sunday were good (everything being relative) for climbing. Hard to imagine the past week's weather now. While a little nasty yesterday and today, weather is improving again for the weekend and I would expect climbers summiting by most of the common routes. I plan on being on the mtn 6-18/21 myself with this forcast.

 

Short of really terrible and rather unusually cold weather coming in again or even more unlikely, a heat wave, I suspect there is little reason to doubt good conditions for a summit attempt via any route on the mtn. for a few weeks.

 

FWIW I have never missed a summit when climbing between June 15 and July 15 via 6 different routes.

 

[ricko]

after watching the weather the last couple of weeks i'm at last now feeling a little optimistic. we moved our trip out a month from when we went last year to try and avoid *May* weather. once again global warming (or is it the switch from la niña to el niño) rears it's ugly head.

[TyneRock]

You could get *really* lucky and get stuck at Muir with a group that hauls up a keg of beer. That's how one crew passed the time up there last weekend. Fortunately, someone remembered the tap.

[xhen]

You could get *really* lucky and get stuck at Muir with a group that hauls up a keg of beer. That's how one crew passed the time up there last weekend. Fortunately, someone remembered the tap.

 

Are we talking full keg or one of the smaller ones? I can remember working in a restaurant and TRYING to move both sizes (ok, I WAS 16). What does one of those suckers weigh?

[TyneRock]

It was a full-sized keg. Respect!

 

Edited June 16, 2010 by TyneRock

[xhen]

It was a full-sized keg. Respect!

 

 

Serious respect. And dedication

[Dane]

Tuesday and Wednesday both had heavy percip locally with a freezing level at 5000' with a forcast 3" to 8" accum. of snow over the last two days on Rainier between 5K and 12K'. Suppose to clear up and dry out this afternoon through the weekend.

 

That is the report but it would be more interesting and useful to hear from anyone on the mtn yesterday and today to see what really is happened up high.