Winter weather forecast somewhat undecided

[Dan_Miller]

From this morning's Seattle PI, FWIW:

 

Last updated October 1, 2008 11:31 p.m. PT

 

This winter, expect ... absolutely anything

El Niño and La Niña are so yesteryear

By MIKE BARBER

P-I REPORTER

 

The region's weather forecasters studied sea surface temperatures, examined soil moisture and pored over data from sensors far out in the Pacific to forecast the weather in the next three months.

 

And their conclusion is a resounding who knows.

 

It could flood, but there's almost as good a chance it won't. Snow? Windstorms? Maybe not, but then you can't be too sure.

 

That was the message Wednesday when the National Weather Service briefed reporters and officials whose utilities and agencies must respond to weather-related emergencies in the first months of winter.

 

With only three possible outcomes -- a drier El Niño, a wetter La Niña or a somewhat inconclusive category called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) -- the answer for the upcoming winter of 2008-09 is:

 

Neutral. ENSO Neutral.

 

What does that mean?

 

There's an even chance temperatures and such could be above or below normal this winter -- there aren't a lot of strong trends evident.

 

What does that really mean?

 

Well, given the Northwest's three major weather sources of damage -- floods, windstorms and lowland snow -- big floods can occur in the "neutral" years. The Northwest's winter floods of 1990-91 and 1995-96 were in ENSO neutral years.

 

The chances of major windstorms and lowland snow are a little less likely but possible. The 1962 Columbus Day storm and the 1979 Hood Canal storm occurred in neutral years.

 

At the same time, odds are about even for above-normal temperatures in October, November and December, said Kirby Cook, science and operations officer for the National Weather Service Seattle/Tacoma.

 

It "likely will stay a little drier than what we've seen."

 

It's all very fluid. Overall, looking at the factors from this far out, neutral years simply provide meteorologists with "a tough (winter) forecast to make," Cook said.

 

Crapshoots. El Niño and La Niña years, by contrast, send stronger signals of what we might expect.

 

Regardless, long-range outlooks are about probabilities.

 

The tendency of bigger winter flooding in neutral years is just that, a probability, and one based upon a short history. A 55 percent chance of flooding also carries a 45 percent chance there will not be any.

 

Best bet -- pay attention to the short-term forecasts during the season. In the Pacific Northwest, officials said you should make a habit of being prepared, including having emergency kits, cleaning around storm drains, checking what you'd need in a prolonged power outage and examining trees for trimming.

 

"The bottom line is that regardless, we can have significant weather at any time here in the Pacific Northwest. We can have crazy (winter) weather anytime. The big message from last season is to be prepared for weather that can impact us," Cook said.

 

Andy Wappler of Puget Sound Energy, a former television weatherman, said that regardless of the "neutral" outlook, the utility isn't taking any chances.

 

Past experiences have taught everyone to be ready for whatever Mother Nature tosses this way.

 

The utility, and a state Department of Transportation spokeswoman, said both agencies are gearing up to meet the worst possible winter weather challenges with rapid response and enhanced services.

 

 

[kevino]

Thats a long article about nothing.

[turn_one]

Well put this in your magic 8-ball weather forecasting machines ENSO predictors...(picture and comment valid for 2 days):

 

http://www.stevenspass.com/Stevens/info/mountain-cams.aspx

 

 

 

 

 

[kevino]

nice

[AlpineK]

I try and stay away from Stevens, but I like that picture of the area.

[billbob]

Looked like the Palmer on Hood is up now, kinda fast/icy tho...

[skykilo]

Palmer was epic last Sunday. It started icy but warmed into perfection.