Disproportionate Newbs

[ketch]

In another thread Kurthicks made a great post about newby enthusiasm and judgment. It got me to thinking about ratios and how newbs represent in the numbers. I know that from a commercial driving standpoint it has been shown that as much as 85% of all truck driving mishaps occur in the first 2000hrs of a drivers career. This is also the reason for graduated drivers license's. I have seen studies from SCUBA that reflects a similar ratio but do not recall any numbers.

 

Just out of curiosity anyone out there know of any similar climber or mountaineering studies? Or even have a sense of same?

[high_on_rock]

heard the theory two days ago that when it comes to climbing, the more you learn does not make you safer, it merely raises the level of the risks you will take. When one climbs, s/he pushes their comfort zone by X amount, and the more you learn the higher that level is.

[Klimber]

I see this happening in practice.

[catbirdseat]

In one of his books on training for rock climbing Eric Horst compared three skills: driving, rock climbing and golfing. Granted, he wasn't discussing safety per se, but rather overall skill. The learning curve is steepest for driving, followed by rock climbing and finally golf. I would have to say that alpine climbing has a much longer learning curve than just rock climbing, as there are many more facets to that activity, and the greater role of judgement.

[high_on_rock]

When I started out, I might have felt comfortable climbing unroped on low 4th class rock. If I had fallen, I might have survived. Now that I am skilled, I feel comfortable climbing mid 5th class rock unroped, and that fall is going to hurt. In reality, I think that my learning has made me climb less safely as I still climb just a little above my comfort zone.

[kurthicks]

the more you learn does not make you safer, it merely raises the level of the risks you will take.

 

This can definately occur in avalanche accidents

 

http://www.backcountrysafety.com/a_heuristic_traps_in_accidents.php

 

http://snowpit.com/articles/traps%20reprint.pdf

[high_on_rock]

Nice article Kurt, the http://snowpit.com/articles/traps%20reprint.pdf link is a great discussion of the heuristic phenomenon and a good read.

[blueserac]

Yeah good points. There is a seven phase model for mastery of understanding. it goes like this:

1- Unknowing/Ingorant of all details

2-Unconscious Awkwardness, so like CP-3O just bumbling along

3-Conscious Awkwardness, the one determined to tie that knot but isn't able

4-Proficiency, you can tie that knot and can rig that simple bolt anchor

5-Conscious Mastery, you know you are good, and solid and can rig your anchors from a web of placed gear; the sort of person that cuts their teeth on lead with routes that test them

6-Unconcious Mastery, the Obi-wan, the one that does it to fit the settings without checking with the celestial calendar, and does it fast.

7-Knowing, very familar with all details

 

I have noticed that a lot of the accidents that I have seen come from the folks in either the fourth or fifth phases of knowing. Most of the rank beginners seem to be too scared to do anything (except males between 18-45; and compounded in the company of other males)that will place them at risk. Then, yes their are those pushing the envelope but they are in phases six and seven. Complacency is a huge contributor to accidents; and think of that guy that is sending that awsome 10b hand crack that is so good you can sew it up with chocks, but doesn't as he is testing his knowledge, and then runs it out to the anchor and lunges but gets a down sloping sand covered ledge. Then there is the folks that demonstrate that a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing.

 

For some unknown reason it seems that beginners in the second and third phases are imbued with an incredible amount of good luck and aren't getting the chop.

Information and knowledge are two different things.

Edited February 23, 2007 by blueserac

[Jamin]

I totally agree with you guys. I got used to free soloing 4th class rock unroped mainly because my brother and I didn't have any gear. Now that I do have gear, roped rock climbing doesn't seem very scary at all. If I fall, I know that I will not die, whereas before I would have died. As a result, I am not afraid to test my limits.

[carolyn]

I totally agree with you guys. I got used to free soloing 4th class rock unroped mainly because my brother and I didn't have any gear. Now that I do have gear, roped rock climbing doesn't seem very scary at all. If I fall, I know that I will not die, whereas before I would have died. As a result, I am not afraid to test my limits.

 

Jamin,

If you fall (even roped) you absolutely CAN die.

 

Testing your limits should scare you. That fear, when understood and managed, is what helps you make the best decision toward safety for yourself and others.

 

Have you looked at any Accidents of North America Mountaineering books? I believe I saw a whole bunch of them for sale on Ebay (or was it on this site?), maybe borrow some.

 

Part of me wants to help make it clear that climbing is dangerous, even when you do everything right. Another part isnt so sure you are ready to hear that. I suppose the fear of not having control, even when you do everything right could be enough to cause recklessness. I hope at some point you are able to respect yourself (and those you climb with) enough to take every precaution possible to stay safe while climbing.

 

Best of Luck to you.

 

[blueserac]

When instructing different kayaking safety programs, and other wilderness programs, I mention caution around transition zones as this is where accidents tend to surface. So in our arena of climbing we have transition zones when we lead a route that is more difficult than what we usually climb; or if we usually lead slab, crack, sport, ice, or pull on plastic and then jump on another type of route; or it is as simple as topping out, as we are very cautious through the rest of the route and then after the crux we run it out to the anchor. In the mountains, the transition zones can be moving from seasonal snow cover to glaciated terrain; from 3rd and 4th class to 5th class terrain; or from 3rd and 4th class ground with acceptable and reasonable outcomes to permanent outcomes on that same terrrain. It can also be from moving from that nice mid-morning "yeah that was such an awsome breakfast that filled me up, and oh my god did I ever sleep so well in my bivi because I love being away from the family" state where you are running at an optimim; to the period of "oh god, when can we stop, I am so hungy and low on blood sugar, and so dehydrated, and I feel so pressured to make it into the office in the morning" state where we are full of indicision and distraction with a tank of fumes. These transition zones pertain to all of us, rank beginner through to seasoned has-been.

 

If we apply this idea to our learning curves, we see those areas where it is possible to exceed our abilities happening all the time as our progression and understanding in our sport/passion continue. So, how do we navigate this without injury? Looking back at my introduction to climbing I see the role of mentors as being very critical. The mentors taught me stuff about climbing, and also where there to oversee my trial and error process so that I could apply or test all that newly gained information and turn it into knowledge in as safe an envirnment. If the mentors were either not available to help me progress to the next level or were just that gateway was beyond their experience then I would consult a professional and take a course or hire a guide.

 

In our progression it will assist our learning to become a mentor. this may assist those new through those transition zones in there learning curve.

 

[Klimber]

Testing your limits should scare you. That fear, when understood and managed, is what helps you make the best decision toward safety for yourself and others.

 

I really believe this is the way to being safe. Using your fear to keep you safe. Fear should not over take a person but it is definitely healthy and the way I keep myself safe.

[high_on_rock]

I fully believe that if I die climbing it will be on a 5.5 rather than a hard route.

[Jamin]

Well, what I meant is that if you are climbing roped and are doing everything right, you will have a tiny probability of dying. I realize that climbing is dangerous, but as far as toproping or even lead climbing go they are generally safe. Free solos on fifth class rock are not safe.

 

Testing your limits should scare you. That fear, when understood and managed, is what helps you make the best decision toward safety for yourself and others.

 

I would agree with this most of the time, but sometimes you end up full of adrenalin or summit crazy and you don't have very much fear.

 

[carolyn]

I would agree with this most of the time, but sometimes you end up full of adrenalin or summit crazy and you don't have very much fear.

 

BINGO!!!!

Always try to keep those emotions in check, whether it be anger, frustration, excitement, fear, etc while climbing. Its when you let yourself get carried away with those that you dont think, or become closed to other options - options that may just save both you and your partners' lives.

 

Ive almost always been the complete opposite of you - too cautious, allowing my fear and the 'what ifs' prevent me from pushing myself. I have to constantly check in with myself and often times others (my partners) to make sure I am dealing with reality or MY reality. Deciphering between the two realities, whether it be dealing with no fear or two much fear, is vital in climbing (heck, and life in general). I think one of the best ways to work on that is through honesty, openness, and seeking out mentors you will listen to.

 

Now, to be blunt about something....with the attitude you carry right now, it is going to be very difficult to find mentors who will help you. You will also start finding it more and more difficult to find climbing partners. Eventually the only form of climbing you will be able to take part in is soloing, because no one will feel safe around you.

 

show some respect for your life, as well as others, and stay open to what your mentors, friends, and internet gumbies say.

 

[high_on_rock]

This is what a buddy, who is a true geek about these things, tells me:

 

Risk Homeostatis = penchant for risk.

 

Bruce Tremper's "Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain" has an excellent section on risk. I particular, around pp 256. He talks about the "Stupid Line" in that section - below that line and we're bored, above that line we perceive that we're taking an unacceptable risk.

 

Each of us sets our own stupid line based on our risk homeostasis, knowledge of the hazards, and perception of the hazards.

 

The stupid line is cyclical throughout our lives. Our stupid line tends to slowly mosey up over time. Then something happens to return it to reality. Maybe we have a close call, or our buddy dies because or rock fall. At this point the stupid line takes a step function drop. Then over time, our stupid line creeps back up as we forget about the close call, or we rationalize this or that.