another bogus gallup poll ...

[foraker]

What makes me laugh are the people who claim either candidate will win by a landslide when that's clearly not the case. Then I start crying when the winner claims to have a 'mandate from the masses'.

[j_b]

j_b: Just recalculate the numbers based on weighted averages if you care that much. I'd do this for you but I've got to run to drink .

 

i did not calculate anything but eyeballed it; i just don't see what you mean.

 

Moreover, what will you have to say for yourself if the next Gallup go-round has a distinct "12%" bias toward the Democrat side?

 

can you point out one poll that has done so in this campaign? .... i didn't think so. in any case, to answer your question, i would shut up and certainly not use conditional clauses when someone points out shoddy methodology and absurd bias ...

 

there are many other polls out there that rely on likely voter samples w/ ridiculous bias and i am willing to bet that at this point any spread greater than the margin of error is due to bias that is not historically supported.

[scott_harpell]

From MediaMatters.org

 

?The daily Rasmussen Tracking Poll released September 7 showed the two candidates tied with 47 percent each among likely voters. In the Rasmussen poll released September 8, Bush had a 2-percent lead (48 percent to 46 percent), which is within the two-point margin of error.

 

 

?A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted September 3-5 showed Bush with a 7-percent lead (52 percent to 45 percent) among likely voters. But this represented only a small change in support for each candidate from the poll's previous results, which eleven days earlier showed Bush with a 3-percent lead (50 percent to 47 percent). The margin of error was +/-3 percent.

 

 

?An IRC International Communications poll conducted September 1-5 found that of "registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided." The margin of error was +/-3.5 percent.

 

 

?A Zogby poll conducted August 30 through September 2 (overlapping with the TIME magazine poll) showed Bush with a 2-percent lead over Kerry (46 percent to 44 percent) among likely voters. The margin of error was +/-3.2 percent.

 

don't believe the hype. bush isn't in the lead.