Most trustworthy Rainier forecast?

[cneum]

Does anyone have a strong opinion about which forecast tends to be most accurate for Rainier? I've been following the UW recreational site (https://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html) and the mountain-forecast.com site (http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Rainier/forecasts/4392), and just looked at the NOAA forecast (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.87&lon=-121.75&lg=english&FcstType=text&TextType=1). For the system coming in this sunday, UW and NOAA make it sound like there will be light snow accumulating but nothing too bad. mountain-forecast.com is showing 2+ feet of snow at the summit, and 1-2 ft mid-mountain! Is this at all reasonable and/or trustworthy? It seems to vary a bit from day to day, but always sounds way worse than the "chance of showers" the UW forecast is calling for.

 

We were hoping to head up Emmons this week, and can wait for clearing Tuesday to start, but if there is 1-2 feet of wind affected snow up high there might be lingering avy concerns we aren't prepared to deal with.

 

Any thoughts as to whether the one outlier forecast should be trusted? Also willing to accept comment on if avy concern is really an issue on Emmons route... I default to "yes."

[obwan]

The Mountain-forecast.com has of course the best detail, especially regarding the wind speed. Since Mt. Rainier is well known for creating it's own weather, the high winds and thunderstorms can be nasty. Typically the early part of July has been problematic with the last week or so getting better. It looks like things open up for a better start on Thurs - Sat in the predictions, I did the Emmons the 3rd week of July once and went up to Camp Schurman to wait things out. You could also maybe get some current conditions from the climbing rangers at the White River Ranger Station at 360-569-2211. Good Luck

[JasonG]

Mountain Forecast is garbage. Go with the UW.

[cneum]

Yeah, last evening confirmed that Mountain Forecast is garbage. At 8:30, they were calling for 13 inches of snow overnight but a quick check of the web cams showed not a cloud in the sky over the mountain. Muir looks cloudy this morning but no sign of snow yet. We'll trudge up to Schurman in the mist tomorrow and by Thursday it looks to be in good shape.