Dru Posted September 26, 2001 Share Posted September 26, 2001 A s t r o A l e r t Sun-Earth Alert Solar Terrestrial Dispatch http://www.spacew.com 25 September 2001 1. POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AURORAL STORM WARNING. 2. WHITE LIGHT FLARE NOTIFICATION. 3. POTENTIAL SATELLITE ANOMALY WARNING. 4. COPY OF THE MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING. 1. POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT AURORAL STORM WARNING A significant major class X2.6 solar flare was observed from a sunspot complex identified by NOAA as sunspot complex number 9632. This solar flare was associated with a strong Earthward directed coronal mass ejection. It is expected to impact the Earth late in the UTC day of 25 September (anytime near 18:00 UTC on 25 September or 2 pm EDT on 25 September). The impact of this disturbance could produce periods of major auroral storm activity ("northern lights") that may become visible from many middle and low latitude regions. In response to this potential activity, a Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning has been issued together with a Low Latitude Auroral Activity Watch for the days of 25 and 26 September. A copy of the middle latitude warning announcement has been included below (see item 4). 2. Todays major X2.6 solar x-ray flare was reportedly observed in white-light by Jure Zakrajsek of Slovenia. Additional white-light flares are possible in this region. See: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/mdi_sunspots.jpg 3. A strong category S3 (rated from S1 to S5) solar radiation storm was observed following the eruption of todays strong solar flare. Energetic protons travelling at near relativistic speeds (near the speed of light) have produced heavy ionospheric absorption of high frequency radio signals through the polar ionospheric regions. Spacecraft in geosynchronous orbits may experience increased incidences of SEU's (single event upsets), which are caused when an energetic proton impacts a spacecraft and releases some of its energy in semiconductors components on the spacecraft. SEU's can result in "phantom commands" on spacecraft that may (or may not) require operator intervention to correct. Strong proton events such as this can also permanently degrade the performance of solar arrays on spacecraft. In situations where spacecraft power levels are already low, energetic proton events can force spacecraft operators to shut down instruments in order to preserve power. Atmospheric drag on lower orbiting spacecraft is also expected to increase following the arrival of the coronal mass ejection and the ensuing geomagnetic storm. Spacecraft with cameras are already observing the effects of the heightened proton activity in the form of increased cosmic ray noise produced as protons impact spacecraft imaging sensors and trace out streaks of light. These conditions can confuse star tracking systems used to maintain accurate spacecraft orientations. 4. /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING ISSUED: 04:20 UTC, 25 SEPTEMBER 2001 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ *** POTENTIAL FOR HIGH ACTIVITY EXISTS *** VALID BEGINNING AT: 15:00 UTC 25 SEPTEMBER VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 28 SEPTEMBER HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 - 26 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 25 - 28 SEPTEMBER PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 100, 40, 12 (25 - 28 SEPTEMBER) POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS MINOR BELT = 36 TO 48 HOURS ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER MOONSET NR MIDNIGHT OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS TO LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN REGIONS OF FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA. ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... EXTREME NORTHERN MOROCCO TO EXTREME NORTHERN ALGERIA TO NORTHERN TUNISIA TO SOUTHERN ITALY TO GREECE TO EXTREME NORTHERN TURKEY TO GEORGIA TO NORTHERN AZERBAIJAN TO SOUTHWESTERN KAZAKSTAN TO NORTHERN UZBEKISTAN TO CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EAST-CENTRAL KAZAKSTAN TO EXTREME NORTHERN MONGOLIA TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CHINA TO CENTRAL SAKHALIN. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY EXTREME NORTHERN JAPAN MAY WITNESS ACTIVITY. IN AUSTRALIA, ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY *SOUTH* OF A LIHE FROM NORTHERN NEW SOUTH WALES TO NORTHERN SOUTH AUSTRALIA TO CENTRAL WESTERN AUSTRALIA. ALL OF NEW ZEALAND HAS MAY OBSERVE ACTIVITY. IN SOUTH AFRICA, THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF SOUTH AFRICA (NEAR CAPE TOWN AND PORT ELIZABETH) *MAY* OBSERVE SOME ACTIVITY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM, IF PREDICTIONS HOLD TRUE. IN SOUTH AMERICA, SOUTHERN REGIONS OF CHILE AND ARGENTINA *MAY* SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A LINE OF ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE FALKLAND ISLANDS MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY. SYNOPSIS... A strong solar flare and high velocity Earthward directed coronal mass ejection were observed at 10:38 UTC (6:38 am EDT) on 24 September. The coronal mass ejection is expected to impact the Earth near 18:00 UTC (2 pm EDT) on 25 September, give or take several hours. The arrival of this disturbance is expected to produce periods of major to severe geomagnetic and auroral storm activity. This disturbance has the potential to be one of the largest observed this solar cycle. Observations well into the low latitude regions may be possible if predictions hold true. Observations will be best after local midnight in the northern hemisphere when the moon sets (or after about 3 am in Australia/New Zealand). Forecasters suggest this disturbance has the potential to last as long as perhaps 48 hours. As a result, most middle latitude regions of the world should have at least one chance to observe activity. Whether this holds true remains to be seen. Forecasts of storm durations are an inexact science. This warning will remain in effect until 19:00 UTC on 28 September. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html * OR * Use the STD AURORA MONITOR Software to monitor conditions and report sightings. It is available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora For Real-Time News and Discussions with Experienced Aurora Enthusiasts: http://www.spacew.com/irc and join the #aurora channel (type /join #aurora) WE HAVE A USEFUL DISCUSSION FORUM FOR AURORA ENTHUSIASTS AVAILABLE AT: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html ** End of AstroAlert ** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hikerwa Posted September 26, 2001 Share Posted September 26, 2001 whoa dru, did you type all that? hahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasbeen Posted September 26, 2001 Share Posted September 26, 2001 I'm definitely intrigued but my brain hurts enough from just being at work. I think I'll stick to reading the posts for the ropeup carpooling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted September 26, 2001 Author Share Posted September 26, 2001 no I spammed it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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