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rob

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    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted · Edited by rob

    Betting-And-Knowing-The-Gamblerrsquos-Fallacy.jpeg

     

    Anyway, I know I've certainly developed a healthier dose of pragmatism and caution since getting older and seeing people die in ways that could have been me. I was involved in an avalanche recovery a few years into my "climbing career" and it changed my outlook permanently.

     

    Re: head game, I think that's really the meat of the matter. Some people can take all of their fear and stuff it into their back pocket for later (a technique tvash taught me) and some can't. That's probably the difference between a great climber and an amateur. I wouldn't know :P

     

    I find as I get older, the amount I can stuff into that back pocket gets smaller and smaller.

    Seattle Pubclub

    in Events Forum

    Posted

    Lets try to keep this thing going, every other week. Next Wednesday will be the next one.

     

    :tup::brew:

     

    All I ask for is a good IPA to be available.

     

    Or three.

     

     

    We're meeting at Chuck's Hop Shop this time, right? They won't let you down

    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted · Edited by rob

    :lmao:

     

    It's okay, Pat. You can't be right about everything, even if it makes you really butt-hurt when you're wrong. I can understand that for sure. You can keep acting like a dick though, if you want -- i'm not going to feel bad trying to explain the sky is blue to a grouch. Don't you know bullying me doesn't work by now, though? Anyway, Cheers!

    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted · Edited by rob

    "5% might be low if you don't do it very often"?

     

    the number of times you take a 5% change risk doesn't change the odds of that individual risk, though :lmao:

     

     

    nevermind bro :) Either you don't get it, or we're talking about different thinkgs or something. I'll take the high path! Obviously the longer you engage in risk activity, the greater number of times you roll the dice. The odds of the roll itself don't change just because you've rolled the dice a bunch of times before, though. Semantics, I guess. Carry on

     

    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted

    You love to argue :) I like that about you.

     

    My point is that the number of times you've made a 95% move has nothing to do with the odds of making the next 95% move. Stats 101! a 95% move made after 20 years of climbing is just as 95% as the very first time you made it. The odds of going 20 years without a 5% chance of failure are smaller, but when you actually make the move it doesn't matter how many times you tried before -- your odds aren't somehow worse because you've never had your 5% failure yet.

     

    This is clearly not the same as your original statement, which I'm willing to allow you misspoke about and will not even bother quoting.

     

    but if you want to measure penis size, I'm game lolz. How do I upload pictures again?

    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted · Edited by rob

    Hmmm, you get an F on that stats test, Rob

     

    The probability of something with an x% probability happening N times in a row is x^N.

     

    Sure, the probability of flipping a coin heads every time 50 times in a row is small, but *everytime* you actually flip it, it's still 1/2 -- the previous number of flips no longerinfluences the outcome. Look it up. A 95% move will always be 95%, while actually making the move, regardless of previous history.

     

    Should I show a proof? :)

    head game and mindset after a scare?

    in Climber's Board

    Posted · Edited by rob

    So, the probability of making a 95% move 14 times in a row drops below 50%. Plus, are you really 95%, and not, say, 60% sure you can make the move? The odds very quickly fall out of your favor in that range.

     

    yeah, but once you make the move, the probably of the past moves resets to 1 -- at the time of execution, the odds of making the 95% move are 95% every time you make the move, regardless of how many times you made the move before.

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistically_independent

     

    :P

     

    The question is, is 95% good enough for you? That's the rub

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