Battle of Baghdad

[prole]

A good article

 

As attuned as anyone to recent announcements, insurgent leaders, who have thus far demonstrated formidable tactical skills and increased cooperation among factions, know precisely where and roughly when the new phase will start. Preparations have almost certainly begun. Arms caches, observation positions, fields of fire and tiers of explosive devices are probably being set up for a defense in depth throughout Sunni Baghdad.

 

Insurgent leaders probably know they cannot defeat the US and Iraqi troops in the battle of Baghdad, at least not in the usual sense. They will seek to inflict high casualties on US and Iraqi troops, force US firepower to devastate Baghdad at least as much as it did Fallujah, and attempt to cause Iraqi army units to disintegrate or at least balk.

 

They will create diversionary uprisings elsewhere in the Sunni Triangle, strike into Shi'ite neighborhoods of Baghdad, and attempt to cut off the city from fuel and food supplies.

 

Insurgents will be bolstered by the expectation that high US casualties and the devastation of large parts of Baghdad will decisively transform US opinion into wide and intense opposition insisting on a rapid withdrawal from Iraq, however graceless that might be.

 

To be successful, US and Iraqi forces must accomplish most if not all of the following: deliver serious damage to insurgent organizations; inflict heavy and daunting casualties on insurgents; avoid suffering casualties that cause already weak US support to collapse or the fledgling Iraqi army to disintegrate; bring government services to Sunni Arab people and win them over; avoid losing ground in adjacent cities during the battle of Baghdad; and retain sufficient military and governmental resources to replicate the program outside Baghdad. A tall order, to be sure.

 

The Shiite militias are another story entirely.