Mount Shasta

[Carina]

Hi,

 

I am a newbie mountaineer but do have some technical skills from years of rock climbing and most recently ice climbing. I am attempting to summit of Tuesday / Wednesday. I will go up the avalanche gulch trail.

My main concerns are the weather- it doesn’t seem that it’s going to get below freezing during the night which may make trail conditions bad (I.e., slush and rock fall).

 

any advice on anything would be helpful!

[mthorman]

Just did a quick check and I would agree with your concerns.  Freezing levels are forecasted well above the summit, with it getting warming each day this week (looks like a real heat wave for the weekend).  This could definitely lead to some soft snow which makes travel slower.  The biggest risk is rockfall.....with the red bands you have to pass on your route there is definitely rock fall potential.  Usually climbers accept that risk on the way down because they can pass through an area quickly but being exposed to that risk on the way up because it didn't freeze at night definitely adds to the danger.  The other thought is winds.  Winds make the potential for rockfall much worse.  Windy.com point forecast allows you to compare the different models.  3 out of 5 models are forecasting winds of 35-40mph.  The other 2 are more in the 10-15mph range.  NOAA point forecast for Shasta is gusts to 50mph for Tues and it dimishes to gusts for 40mph for Wed.  So while they aren't in perfect agreement I think it is safe to say it will be pretty windy on the mountain.  Those 2 things together (wind and high freezing temps) would make me rethink my plans.  Of course that is my decision and everyone is going to have their own.  I am just trying to lay out the things that would factor into my decision making.  For me if I can adjust my dates and minimize a bunch of risk I often will.