How reliable are Rainier weather forecasts?

[jakeblake]

Hello,

 

How reliable are Rainier weather forecasts? For instance, you are at high camp and the forecast looks good for the next 24 hours. Is it then very rare to experience bad weather (white-out, etc) or are weather forecasts for the summit often unreliable? I've read a lot about the unpredictable nature of the weather up there. Just trying to get a real sense for how much stock to put in the summit day forecast. Thanks.

[Julian]

It's the fucking Cascades man, reliable forecast is a contradiction.

 

But seriously, any big, isolated mountain (such as a Cascades stratovolcano) has the ability to create its own unpredictable weather, even weather that's localized to particular areas of the mountain. The last time two of my buddies went to check out the Black Spider on Hood they were in a zero visibility white-out, then in t-shirts and sun once they got back to the south side.

[RaisedByPikas]

It depends on the time of the year. In summer the weather can be pretty reliable within a week long period of sunshine. If you have several days prior to and after your summit day predicted to be clear and low winds then you you will most likely get good weather. If your summit day is closer to a front moving through then all bets are off. It also depends on how unfavorable the unfavorable weather is. If the weather was supposed to get really bad I might turn around at or even before the first sign of trouble. However if it just called for "increasing clouds" or something like that I might continue for a little bit.

 

In winter or spring you need to expect crappy weather and no summit on nearly all trips.

Edited March 7, 2011 by RaisedByPikas

[jakeblake]

Great, thanks. Headed up this summer. Visibility and winds obviously most important factors to me and will be relying on the forecast (as well as ranger/guide comments) once at high camp.