-
Posts
150 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by stever
-
-
As someone not local to WA state (I'm from Vancouver, BC) - I'm curious to hear opinions on the snowpack (or lack thereof) this year and how it compares to other drier years...will routes on Rainier, Shuksan and Baker have an earlier and shorter "prime" season before the glacier travel gets complicated? Have been thinking about N Ridge of Baker since the road has been repaired, as well as a route on Shuksan or Rainier, but I fear the lack of snow this year will impact the flexibility of trip planning with a shorter season, or forcing complex glacier travel and more calf burning bare ice?
-
On 7/8/2023 at 7:51 PM, JasonG said:
Mountain Forecast is garbage, at least in my experience. NWS point forecasts are pretty good usually, esp. if you read the forecast discussion to get a sense for how solid they are feeling.
I pair NWS with UW WRF-GFS 4km grid. Typically "1 hour precip loop for western WA" and the "column-integrated cloud water". Those two products are pretty nice to show you the evolution through the day and when to expect clouds and precip.
https://a.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/gfsinit.d3.6hr.html
Of course, they are all all wrong to some degree, and you will win some weekends.....and lose others. But it is a lot better now than it was 25 years ago!
Interesting... I have not seen this website before
-
I’m wondering what you have found to be the most reliable or accurate weather forecast or weather model for the Alpine lakes and north cascades?
I have been looking at the National weather service (linked from mountain project), SpotWX (3.5day NAM) Mountain weather, yr.no, and meteoblue… and they are usually quite different.
I went to Washington Pass two weeks ago, and they varied widely from 20/30%-60% rain or Tstorms. Sure enough we got rain and hail ahead of schedule.
Now I’m trying to be more conservative this time, I’ve been looking for a weather window for Stuart and want to get closer to perfect conditions… this weekend mountain forecast showed minimal to no rain (best case) whereas Spotwx and Meteoblue showed up to 60% rain and Tstorms.
Can anyone with more experience with this area offer some advice or which weather forecast/model is generally more reliable? I understand that they are never going to be perfect, but I’d like to be more comfortable with the go/no go choice!
-
Has anyone been up NW Butt on Chair recently? wondering how the weather has affected the route since the last report
-
I have a Bibler fitzroy if you're interested
-
Any photos?
-
Any guesses on how long this route will stay in (without a headache of crevasse navigation like later in the summer)? I was hoping to do it in July this year...
-
11 hours ago, chrisc88 said:
I believe that it is just what is typically referred to as the “right variation”.
Perfect - Thanks Chris!
-
Where is the rocky right variation in this photo? to the right of the climbers bag?
-
Hope I don't catch too much shit for digging this up...
I have a near new pair of Freney XT I am trying to make work on my foot
How do these boots compare, size wise (and where) compared to the Nepal EVO? I have the Nepal EVO as well, and it fits me well, but the scarpa I get heel lift, even with orthotics and using several overhand knots as I lace the boots.
Anyone remember these boots?
-
What do you have remaining?
-
Go in an give it a go. if the weather if foul, then you will have built up 10 character points.
pin point forecast for shuksan
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-121.59799955127426&lat=48.83368332443618#.WXJDRXo1Z0c
hourly forecast for same
looks like the worst of it is fri night, with rain accumulation of .02" in sat afternoon. with 70% cloud cover. betting it will be OK but you could always make the call after winnie's slide where navigating in cloudy conditions may be an issue.
Thanks for the info!
We went for it but didn't know about the advanced permit vs first come first serve. We arrived 7:30am Saturday and all 6 permits for this side were taken. We camped at Lake Anne, made for a long day 2.
Unfortunately didn't do the SE ridge because I was concerned about wet rock after some rain and the summit pyramid being in the fog the entire morning until 7-8am or so. However if we waited till later in the morning we could have done it, by the time we topped out of the gully a guide and client had done the ridge, leaving at 8am from the base. They encountered wet rock
-
Given the forecast you are likely to be in the rain and mist, in similar conditions to what this TR documented. Sunday looks better, but my exp. is that often moisture is slower to clear out of the mountains than forecast so it still may be pretty socked in until Sunday afternoon. But who knows?
Ah that's disappointing - especially since I was hoping for a dry summit pyramid to do the SE rib...
-
I am planning on doing this route this weekend - but the weather calls for 30% chance of rain Saturday- around the same time I would on the trail to the chimneys.
Anyone with experience with the forecast want to chime in - is it still worth it to try out?
-
Thanks - I enjoyed your report
-
Trip: Mt. Baker - North Ridge
Date: 6/4/2017
Trip Report:
This was an incredible route that we found in incredible conditions. Navigation of the Coleman Glacier was involved but did not give us much trouble. We found a route through the ice cliff that went at straightforward AI2, and the upper seracs were easily passed on the right, but this may not be possible for much longer. Full trip report and photos can be seen on my blog: Spokalpine.
Awesome report! why will it be more difficult to pass the upper seracs?
-
Anyone get on the ridge this long weekend?
-
Did you get a good look at the North Ridge route? Or any zoom pictures?
-
Excellent info, thanks! It sounds like its a balance between icy conditions and glacier navigation as the dates get closer to the end of summer.
Ill keep checking for trip reports as it gets closer to being in prime shape!
-
I read a few trip reports from years past and most people seem to climb the north ridge May-June/Early July. Summitpost also mentioned that it's iciest from May-June.
Has anyone heard of any recent reports on the North Ridge? Or predictions when it may become prime shape?
Thanks in advance!
-
9th pitch is the crux (5.8). A flake at the start gives you some gear placements, then run it out 10m to a bolt, then run it out 25m to another bolt, then easy to the anchor. [\quote]
is the crux bolted and the rest is easy? 25m of runout sounds rough, even on 5.8....
-
There will be a parade of storms between now and then so you'll need to make that call based on the telemetry. As you've probably gathered, it ain't the summer no more.
NWAC's certificate isn't secure so you need to go in and give it permission to display in your browser. It is telemetry data for the Baker ski area which isn't super close geographically, but close enough for this time of year. The chances of fall ascents working out on Eldo aren't super high if you are locked into a date, but you can always try and see how far you get.
Thanks for the good info - I will try NWAC again and see what the weather shows closer to the date
Cheers!
-
If everything freezes between now and then it should stabilize then?
For some reason the link didn't work
-
Has anyone been up Eldorado Peak recently? A group of us Canadians are hoping to climb it this weekend but we are worried about avi conditions. Anyone have any beta on what it's like?
Thanks in advance!
2024 Conditions - Snowpack
in Climber's Board
Posted
Thanks for the reply. I saw a post on FB someone saying ID on Rainier is out already this year "...at 13,000' where I was met with a massive bergshrund that extended from the Emmons Glacier almost to Gibraltar Rock."
Facebook link