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DPS

Winter speculation thread

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What is the word on the street regarding the climate this winter? Cold and wet? Warm and dry?

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It's supposed to be cold in the Canadian Rockies this winter. It has been hitting -5oC already in the valleys which certainly bodes well. There's not a lot of snow and ice yet though.

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Was looking to be cool and wet a couple months back with a la nina watch, but that has since shifted to a more normal outlook now.

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La Nina was the word a few months ago. Since that time NOAA backtracked to a, "Normal," winter.

 

A recent report on North Pacific ocean temperatures implied there was quite a bit of warm water out there

 

[img:center]https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/features/food_chain/images/map.jpg[/img]

 

Not since records began has the region of the North Pacific Ocean been so warm for so long. The warm expanse has been characterized by sea surface temperatures as much as three degrees C (about 5.4 degrees F) higher than average, lasting for months, and appears on large- scale temperature maps as a red-orange mass of warm water many hundreds of miles across.

 

We'll find out in a couple months

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La Nina was the word a few months ago. Since that time NOAA backtracked to a, "Normal," winter.

 

A recent report on North Pacific ocean temperatures implied there was quite a bit of warm water out there

 

 

We'll find out in a couple months

 

Normal is restricted to a setting on your washing machine.

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There was fresh snow on Baker yesterday morning, and a dusting on the summits of the Twinsistometer. Cool enough in Deming this morning that it's probably snowing up high right now.

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Just enough snow that everybody buys new boots and ski passes, then warm rain for the rest of the year. Duh.

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i wish - dude, the Man keeps kicking up the price of me dear burgundy :(

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WWNSS - what would ned stark say?

I lost me bloody head?

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The remnants of that tropical storm were supposed to hit western wa last Saturday.

Two days out everyone was buying food and fueling, costco ran out of bread. Then the storm hit???? NOT.

 

If they can't call the storm of the decade two days out why does anyone take the seasonal forcast seriously or dare I say AGW...

Edited by Eric T

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If they can't call the storm of the decade two days out why does anyone take the seasonal forcast seriously or dare I say AGW...

 

Weather and climate are two different things.

 

If you eat a whole head of cabbage, you might reasonably expect a colon blowout the next day, but try predicting it to the nearest second a day in advance.

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Weather and climate are two different things.

 

Can you please explain this to the climate change doubters in the US? They bring snowballs into Congress and say, "See, it's not warming". I kid you not.

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climate denialist. It's just some of the predictions thrown around are alarmist. An example that pops to mind is the prediction in 1999 that Himalayan glaciers that were supposed to melt and disappear by 2014 causing a huge drought and humanitarian crisis.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/ipcc-finally-acknowledges-its-e2809chimalayan-blundere2809d/

 

 

 

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that is the nature of predictions. if the accuracy of predictions follows a bell shaped curve, like most things human, there will be times that they get it wrong. Those are the times people remember, not the 90% of the time they get the forecast right.

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Don't get me wrong, I'm not a climate denialist. It's just some of the predictions thrown around are alarmist. An example that pops to mind is the prediction in 1999 that Himalayan glaciers that were supposed to melt and disappear by 2014 causing a huge drought and humanitarian crisis.

 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/ipcc-finally-acknowledges-its-e2809chimalayan-blundere2809d/

 

 

 

Hmmm, don't bet on them sticking around forever though

 

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2016/10/24/tibet-avalanches-1/

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