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Kimmo

Had Your Flu Shots Yet?

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Last one. Here's a gem - a boiling vat of conceit resting precariously atop a logical fallacy, the rare but particularly-apt-for-Seattle inverse argumentum ad populum:

 

"I wonder what would be your comments if an anti-vaccine writer had posted an article with "Stupid Fucking Pro-Vaccine Zombies"?

But it happens that anti-vaccine views are held by people who are way too educated, well-read and intelligent to express themselves in this way.

At least there is an internal coherency between the title and the Mississippi argument. So we should follow the example of the people with the worst health, education and socio-economic level, instead of the people who are more learned and did better in life in general?

Well, well..

If only more people would use their own brains, get informed, and just do the math. You may not be knowledgeable enough to understand all the medical facts and terminology, or to analyze statistics - but you can at least look at the populations defining both trends. Who do you trust more?"

 

 

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Look JayB, in science it is not important what you think, but what you know. These studies don't dispute other vaccines, but basically prove flu vaccinations are worthless, since the rates of influenza did not decrease and rate of vaccination quadrupled. And people are questioning wisdom of this practice, since the current vaccine against influenza is simply worthless. The reality is if this would work, with almost 60% of people in the US getting vaccinated against influenza, there should be a significant drop in number of infections, which is not the case. The science simply doesn't back up the claim pharma is making, end of story. If they have something that reduces the rates, I will be the first one to stand in line, but for now I say this is basically snake oil, and scheme to make huge profit.

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I don't think it does any good to draw the battle lines as BIG PHARMA vs. Anti-vaccine freaks. I'm not an anti-vaccine person, but I still have plenty of concerns about the pharma industry...just as I do about big agriculture (Monsanto, etc).

 

i'm not concerned about conspiracies as much as I am about real world anecdotes that don't seem to be wild exceptions. and I do live in Seattle and I do think it is a better place than Mississippi...not sure if that makes me a bad person or not! Of course I have never been to the great state of Mississippi, so don't hold me to it.

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I have a harder time understanding how people I put in the "intelligent-non-expert" category wind up refusing to vaccinate themselves or their children.

 

what sort of intelligence are we talking about? the ability to decipher a set of inter-related variables and their interactions and predict the optimal outcome? if we are to use this game theory model, there would be only one "intelligent" course of action for an american living an exclusively domestic life today: no vaccinations. when one computes the odds of contracting ANY of the illnesses we currently vaccinate for, then further computes the odds of having ANY serious side effects, and contrasts these with both the known and the possible side effects of vaccinations, the "intelligent" course of action is quite obvious. (this model assumes current disease prevalence in the US.)

 

any change in the variables above would potentially affect the optimal strategy of course.

 

ayn rand endorsed this approach, therefore you will too.

 

btw it was the pnas.org post that i found really interesting.

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Love the back and forth in the comments there:

 

"

Other strong correlations re: Autism.

 

The rise of autism strongly correlates with the rise of automobile usage.

 

The rise of autism strongly correlates with increased lifespans.

 

The rise of autism strongly correlates with the rise of cancer rates.

 

The rise of autism strongly correlates with the rise of commercial airline travel.

 

The rise of autism strongly correlates with increased diagnostic techniques, increased attention to mental disabilities, and better access to health serves.

 

The annual rise and fall of drowning deaths strongly correlates with the rise and fall of sales of popsicles."

 

 

#5 i think absolutely plays a role. but the only role?

 

how many of the other correlatives can create symptoms that fall within the autism spectrum?

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I have a harder time understanding how people I put in the "intelligent-non-expert" category wind up refusing to vaccinate themselves or their children.

 

what sort of intelligence are we talking about? the ability to decipher a set of inter-related variables and their interactions and predict the optimal outcome? if we are to use this game theory model, there would be only one "intelligent" course of action for an american living an exclusively domestic life today: no vaccinations. when one computes the odds of contracting ANY of the illnesses we currently vaccinate for, then further computes the odds of having ANY serious side effects, and contrasts these with both the known and the possible side effects of vaccinations, the "intelligent" course of action is quite obvious. (this model assumes current disease prevalence in the US.)

 

any change in the variables above would potentially affect the optimal strategy of course.

 

ayn rand endorsed this approach, therefore you will too.

 

btw it was the pnas.org post that i found really interesting.

 

:lmao:

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Ah lernt me inna MBA skew dat risk 'nalasys gotz two factuhz - prob'bilteh uv

o-ccurance tahmes harm of outcome, not jus da fiost one - so not gettin' yo kidz vaccnated gainst deadly germs dat could kill dem n spread to othuhz seem lahk a bad idee to me!

 

Nah, 'f yoo'll 'xuze me, Ah gotz me sum noodlin' ta do.

Edited by tvashtarkatena

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I would add another correlation is the whole range of autoimmune diseases which have been increasing over the past seventy years in a dramatic fashion.

 

Here is an NYTimes article discussing the probable role of maternal inflammation during pregnancy in autism.

 

Time to start eating dirt or ordering worm cocktails...

 

interesting article.

 

a few little misgivings:

 

At least a subset of autism — perhaps one-third, and very likely more — looks like a type of inflammatory disease. And it begins in the womb.

 

doesn't completely jibe with:

 

What does stopping the insanity entail? Fix the maternal dysregulation, and you’ve most likely prevented autism.

 

 

nitpicking, sure, but interesting article.

 

now if a similar study would include a vax vs non-vax component.

 

it'd be pretty easy to find 'em, since we all know about those crazies who aren't vaccinating.

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oh and i think the article mis-stated the rise in autism:

 

hasn't it gone from a 1 in 10,000 diagnosis rate 50 years ago to a in in 88 rate now? much greater than a ten-fold increase....

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I don't think it does any good to draw the battle lines as BIG PHARMA vs. Anti-vaccine freaks. I'm not an anti-vaccine person

 

hi oly, i agree, but then you kinda did by saying you're not an "anti-vaccine person".

 

very few are "anti-vaccine" per se. of course there's a fringe that vocally and hysterically decries everything about vaccines: gov plot, big pharma conspiracy, aliens, etc etc.,

 

but don't automatically assume that anyone who questions any aspect of vaccines as they are currently promulgated by the cdc, nih, offit, etc. falls either into the above group, or is "anti-vaccine".

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No, diagnosis rates haven't gone up more than 10 fold. The increase is due to better diagnosis. States with vigorous programs have higher autism rates.

 

"What we're looking at is mostly due to practices and infrastructure and culture rather than some underlying biological phenomenon," said Dr. Daniel Geschwind, an autism expert at UCLA, explaining the patterns."

 

FYI: there aren't more extra solar planets than there were 20 years ago, either, so that rules that out as a cause for autism.

Edited by tvashtarkatena

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This thread is metastasizing like cancer and not like flu.

 

I am impressed with the knowledge of the members.

 

My approach is simple: I do what I want and take what I get.

 

I have never had a flu shot and haven't had the flu in 30 years. Its empirical evidence that works for me.

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Ah lernt me inna MBA skew dat risk 'nalasys gotz two factuhz - prob'bilteh uv

o-ccurance tahmes harm of outcome, not jus da fiost one - so not gettin' yo kidz vaccnated gainst deadly germs dat could kill dem n spread to othuhz seem lahk a bad idee to me!

 

Nah, 'f yoo'll 'xuze me, Ah gotz me sum noodlin' ta do.

 

that's a mighty fine, um, idaho accent you got there, but care to run the numbers?

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No, diagnosis rates haven't gone up more than 10 fold.

 

from joe's link:

 

Diagnoses have increased tenfold, although a careful assessment suggests that the true increase in incidences is less than half that.

 

 

don't confuse diagnosis with actual incidence.

 

 

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is this thread shitting on all vaccines or just the annual flu one? the conventional wisdom, as i've understood it since ever-fuck-afore, is that the flu vaccine ain't very dependable, but the big boys, like for tetanus, diptheria, measles, etc. are actually quite good.

 

read a book once about kids dyiing of diptheria in nome, alaska - holy shit that's a suck-ass way to die, and i'm very happy that vaccines have largely relegated it to history books...

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I have never had a flu shot and haven't had the flu in 30 years. Its empirical evidence that works for me.

 

If you have a six-shot revolver and you spin the barrel and then shoot at your head five times and the hammer drops on an empty chamber every time, is that "empirical evidence" that you can do it a sixth time and stay living?

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I wonder how many of the people who don't get flu shots do get the anti-cervical cancer warts shot for their daughters.

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I wonder how many of the people who don't get flu shots do get the anti-cervical cancer warts shot for their daughters.

isn't the point that some vaccines work very well, others not so much?

 

not getting your kids a flu shot doesn't seem nearly as insane as not getting the hpv-vaccine or any of hte others i mentioned above (personal annecdote: my daughter damn near died a few years back during the big swine-flu outbreak, despite getting the vaccine a few weeks earlier - we still give the kids their shot each year, but we don't expect much that'll it help)

 

that said, i get a flu-shot when it's convenient for me, which is most years - i'm an autistic-savant already, so why worry? :)

Edited by ivan

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I wonder how many of the people who don't get flu shots do get the anti-cervical cancer warts shot for their daughters.

 

Because cancer is the EXACT SAME THING as the flu.

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