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genepires

"stop telling ourselves lies about the risk"

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If you use a dozen sheets of tp once a day and your so uses 20 10 times a day chances are you're gonna get in trouble for never changing the roll.

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If you flip a coin 9 times and come up with heads everytime, the probability of flipping the coin again and coming up heads is still 50/50.

 

Not if you're a gambling man... ever played roulette, or bet on a race horse?

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ever played roulette, or bet on a race horse?

No, because I understand statistics.

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If you flip a coin 9 times and come up with heads everytime, the probability of flipping the coin again and coming up heads is still 50/50.

 

Or, it's a two headed coin. In which case if you're using it in a "for profit" enterprise, would segue us back into the original evaluation of risk/reward/injury/death part of the thread...

 

d

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ever played roulette, or bet on a race horse?

No, because I understand statistics.

 

Don't be a weenie [dog]!

 

A beautiful woman is a good enough reason to gamble.

 

Seems to be true of climbing too, remember some folks (including me) really sticking necks out on R/X and hormones seem an inducement.

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I have to say I was surprised to see the odds of death by suicide. A lot higher than I expected.

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Maybe I missed it in all the mayhem, but did anyone link to Steph's analysis?

 

Although she has some interesting conclusions, my personal experience that alpine climbing is significantly more dangerous than driving.

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If you flip a coin 9 times and come up with heads everytime, the probability of flipping the coin again and coming up heads is still 50/50.

 

if you flip a coin 9 times and get a heads every time, there's one probability that you are at the long tail of a normal distribution, and the Bayesian statistician would also evaluate the probability that there is something wrong with the coin you are using (in which case the chance of getting another head might be 100%)

If you enough to invoke Thomas Bayes, you know enough that a 'fair' coin is assumed.

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it doesn't matter what you think of statistics or how well you understand or argue them, you're gambling every time you climb.

 

Fuck it....gambling is fun. Pick your poison, lottery, horses, casinos...mountains, rivers, sky....whatever.

 

One of the most annoying injuries I ever got, involved me walking on deck joists and breaking my ribs. Hell, I got out of bed this morning and was nearly killed by my cat in the first 5 minutes I was awake.

 

who cares about the stats? are you gonna get out the door and go climbing or not?

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it doesn't matter what you think of statistics or how well you understand or argue them, you're gambling every time you climb.

 

Fuck it....gambling is fun. Pick your poison, lottery, horses, casinos...mountains, rivers, sky....whatever.

 

One of the most annoying injuries I ever got, involved me walking on deck joists and breaking my ribs. Hell, I got out of bed this morning and was nearly killed by my cat in the first 5 minutes I was awake.

 

who cares about the stats? are you gonna get out the door and go climbing or not?

 

lol, that may be the best post yet on this thread... Except for mine of course.

 

I broke three ribs in a similar fashion while constructing a house some years back. While decking 1st floor I slipped on adhesive on joist and fell through. Ribcage intersecting said joist did prevent further damage from the fall to the basement below...

 

Life's a bitch, then ya die. Never been much for stats/probability curves either.

 

d

 

 

 

 

Edited by dougd

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If you flip a coin 9 times and come up with heads everytime, the probability of flipping the coin again and coming up heads is still 50/50.

 

if you flip a coin 9 times and get a heads every time, there's one probability that you are at the long tail of a normal distribution, and the Bayesian statistician would also evaluate the probability that there is something wrong with the coin you are using (in which case the chance of getting another head might be 100%)

If you enough to invoke Thomas Bayes, you know enough that a 'fair' coin is assumed.

 

In climbing, you have to expect the unexpected. Diedre has been solid the last dozen times I climbed it, but if I assume that, I could be surprised by a recently exfoliated flake while soloing and pitch off for a 200m slab whipper. If the snow was awesome on Cypress and I assume it's the same when I drop into Suicide Gully, I could be surprised by a windslab and get avalanched. So no, you don't just "assume the coin is fair". Bayes is all about multiple hypotheses. A fair coin is just one of those hypotheses, and it is also possible to test that assumption. The more flips you make and the more consecutive heads you get, the more the assumption that the coin is fair becomes suspect. Of course you could just stop and look at it to see if it has two heads or if it's weighted or whatever too. There are other, more effective ways of testing fairness than just by flipping. But if you start off by assuming fairness, then a long run of unfair behaviour is in fact exactly one of the indicators that you might need to change your assumption of fairness.

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Conversely, this is why toast always falls jam side down.

 

Resistentialism is a theory to describe "seemingly spiteful behavior manifested by inanimate objects". For example, objects that cause problems (like lost keys or a fleeing bouncy ball) exhibit a high degree of malice toward humans and lend support to resistentialist beliefs. In other words, a war is being fought between humans and inanimate objects, and all the little annoyances objects give people throughout the day are battles between the two.

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Conversely, this is why toast always falls jam side down.

 

Resistentialism is a theory to describe "seemingly spiteful behavior manifested by inanimate objects". For example, objects that cause problems (like lost keys or a fleeing bouncy ball) exhibit a high degree of malice toward humans and lend support to resistentialist beliefs. In other words, a war is being fought between humans and inanimate objects, and all the little annoyances objects give people throughout the day are battles between the two.

 

Indeed, a doorway frame jumped out and kicked my toes this morning, stubbing them, and causing great pain. Damn them!

 

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One thing we haven't really acknowledged here is the risk to OTHERS especially those who come to the rescue.

 

Just had a SAR fatality here in Wyo. when a helicopter crashed during a rescue for a snowmoblower who, it turned out, was also a fatality.

 

Another good example has to be the famous Art Gilkey rescue attempt on K2 where the entire party was willing to attempt a rescue even though that meant they all would most likely die and in fact they did almost die. Often lost in that was that a party of two roped climbers would have died had their rope not become entangled.

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I've got a highs school buddy who is a pretty crazy SOB, looks like the stats caught up with him when he was hit by a car crossing the street last week. He's in ICU and all busted up, hoping he pulls through. I was not surprised when I heard he had an accident knowing how ballzy he is, very surprised it happened while crossing the street, though.

 

Life is a risk, no matter how well you mitigate perceived risk(s). Seems if you stay home safe and secure, chances are lightning will strike you in your comfy bed...

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I've been hit by cars a few times, now -- once while jogging on the sidewalk. I've never been hit by a car whilst climbing, however. :yoda:

 

moreyouknow.jpg

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I've been hit by cars a few times, now -- once while jogging on the sidewalk. I've never been hit by a car whilst climbing, however. :yoda:

 

 

It could happen

 

sidewalkclimbing.jpg

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How dangerous is clucking? I mean statistically-speaking, as compared to each activity involved in it separately?

 

HELLO!

 

Not dangerous at all! :wave:

 

bukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbuk....

COCK A DOODLE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Lets see, 1:8 who climb Everest Die on Everest. Its far worse on K2. Statistics for climbing Mt. Si, well its WAAAAAAY down the list. There is climbing and then there is CLIMBING.

 

In between the two extremes, where at one end(mt. si) Stupidity rules for killing yourslef, the other end Everest, luck/patience rules for death statistic.

 

In between skill takes a larger and larger % in said chance of dieing.

 

I won't be climbing Everest or K2 anytime soon. I prefer living. Will I routinely go mountaineer backpacking? Moderate fifth class +glaciers with quite a bit of 4th/3rd and easy strolling thrown in? Yes. Does this increase my odds of dieing? Yea as a major odds of death is SLIP on rock due to loose crud. Would be better off vertical rock climbing in regards to actually dieing %.

 

Is there skill in driving? Yes. Though most deaths in driving are a) not your fault and b) folks who survived never saw it coming.

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Lets see, 1:8 who climb Everest Die on Everest. Its far worse on K2.

 

What does that mean?

 

1 in 8 summiteers die?

 

Guess it'd have be on the way down.

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How dangerous is clucking? I mean statistically-speaking, as compared to each activity involved in it separately?

 

HELLO!

 

Not dangerous at all! :wave:

 

bukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbukbuk....

COCK A DOODLE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Rooster, you should check out the sweet digs out here in the gorge. I know of a new state of the art, semi-master planned, chicken communiuty. Best part is, it's ALL hens, no roosters. Get my drift, buddy? ;)

 

LeCasa De Pollo

 

Then again, the last two roosters ended up as dog food. Just sayin...

 

Boc, boc, BaGooooocckk!

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