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Early Season BC Ice Conditions/Speculation Thread.

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So, the first arctic outbreak of the season.

 

Hope forecast: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-36_metric_e.html

 

Lillooet forecast:

 

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-28_metric_e.html

 

Pemberton forecast:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-16_metric_e.html

 

 

The current longrange forecast isn't much use but shows a warm front arriving around Wednesday. From previous experience, something like 5 days is required to form up climbable ice in the Fraser Valley, and more like 7 days in drier Lillooet. snow can delay ice formup when temperatures remain below freezing, but speed it up when there are melt/freeze cycles.

 

We got about 2" of snow overnight in Chilliwack, and Hope got more.

 

My prognostications: nothing much is going to come in in Hope unless it stays cold longer than forecast. Tuesday and Wednesday are the most likely days. High elevation stuff like Sumallo Bluffs are likely fully white with snow.

 

The same applies to Squamish although there's major outflow forecast for Howe Sound today so it may form up faster there.

 

Mixed adventures are likely possible on crags around Whistler and Pemberton by this weekend, including Green River Bastion and Mystery Roach areas.

 

High elevation ice on the Duffy like Isodoth Gully is probably buried under the new snow.

 

I wouldn't expect Lillooet area to be much in yet until next weekend (Nov 27th). If anything is good to go it will be moderately high elevation north facing ice like Night N Gale.

 

From experience Oregon Jack will probably have a hollow and fragile ice shell with chunks falling off this weekend, and be good to go by late next weekend if the cold stays.

 

Marble will likely be unleadable. Give the ice time to grow. Marbe Canyon ice jonesers might find the best sport on the mixed routes in the Jolly Rancher/Waite For Spring area.

 

All in all, it's probably better to plan on skiing than ice climbing this weekend. Get the tools ready for local ice by late next week in areas where the cold stays (Whistler, Pemberton, Lillooet)

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Cache Creek and Lillooet were getting absolutely pissed on with rain 2 weeks ago, so that might be a positive sign for the amount of ground moisture around to fatten stuff up. Who knows.

Snow line was below the acrophobes yesterday.

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Took a looksee today around the valley, discontinuous sheets of thin dribbles on stuff like White Wedding. Probably at least 3 more days to reach climbable conditions. South facing stuff like Seabird Falls is melting off in the day

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It isn't fat around Hope yet but a lot of stuff is on the way. I went out for a looksee and it gets thicker and bluer the further east you go. The Diviner, Medusa, and the Honeymoon might all be climbable, they looked good from the road anyways. Medusa's probably the best of the lot. Honeymoon doesn't have much avvy hazard yet as the snowpack is just too low.

 

Mousetrap has a bunch of water-spewing holes.

 

Jarvis Bluffs are mostly touching down but not climbable yet.

 

I didn't go up to Sumallo but it has the same elevation and aspect as Medusa so I have good hopes for there being climbable ice there this week.

 

I didn't go up the 1 to look at the Hells Gate area.

 

All in all things are coming in surprisingly fast.

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we climbed Rambles left on Sunday. All in all more ice around than I was expecting. Boxing Day and Gong & Short of It looked OK and not avy threatened yet.

Plum and PCV are building nicely and other Darcy-Birken stuff - probably climbable now in much harder than usual shape. Entropy and the XitoLacw things both looked very grey and thin, plus not a ton of snow around to feed them.

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There's formed up and climbable looking ice on Sumas Mountain, of all places. A seep I've been eying for a couple years has made what looks like a nice pitch of ice. I'll see if I can get to it after work one day this week :D

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shit I am going to miss this window. I can start working out though, but nothing hard for another week. Anyway- keep us informed!

 

With the appendix gone, you should be ~ 0.1% lighter and hence your power to weight ratio should have improved somewhat.

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yesterday:

 

bigice.jpg

 

is it fat and ready for climbing? or is it sun rotted and about to fall ...

 

hmm ...

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