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Gary_Yngve

Palin's to-be son-in-law HS dropout

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complex financial instruments were actually designed by mathematicians and physicists...

"Obviously they turned out to be wrong," Partnoy says. Asked why, he says, "Because you can't model human behavior with math."

Nice try bitches, but the only "mathematicians and physicists" who end up in finance are the failures and charlatans. Real "mathematicians and physicists" would be the first to tell you that market psychology has absolutely nothing to do with the quantitative sciences that they study.

 

But who is stupider: the pretenders claiming that simply crunching numbers is scientific, or the greedy businessmen and investors that bet billions on it? Where is the business sense that these people were supposed to have learned in business school?

 

ps. good electricians make good money

 

Oh look, douche-bag #2 decided to join the party. You know, the other guy besides Gary who thinks he has the world figured out from the ivory academic tower because he can throw softball criticisms at everyday people and thinks he sounds smart because of it. Good luck teaching at junior college fellas!

Edited by E-rock

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I'll preface this with a disclaimer about my economic ignorance, but I read a long article on nytimes.com a few weeks ago about how the managers would push the guys doing the modeling until the models returned the answers they desired. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

 

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I'll preface this with a disclaimer about my economic ignorance, but I read a long article on nytimes.com a few weeks ago about how the managers would push the guys doing the modeling until the models returned the answers they desired. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

What works for foreign policy, works for the economy! Could you post the link, I love this kind of stuff.

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Nice try bitches, but the only "mathematicians and physicists" who end up in finance are the failures and charlatans.

 

No, this is the avenue for "mathematicians and physicists" to make a lot of money. And they do! Not every PhD wants to live on 45k/yr.

 

except for assworked...he's gonna be a monk in a monastery!

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here's the link

 

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/how-wall-streets-quants-lied-to-their-computers/?scp=11&sq=model%20where%20were&st=cse

 

partial quote:

So where were the quants?

NYSE(Credit: Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times)

 

That’s what has been running through my head as I watch some of the oldest and seemingly best-run firms on Wall Street implode because of what turned out to be really bad bets on mortgage securities.

 

Before I started covering the Internet in 1997, I spent 13 years covering trading and finance. I covered my share of trading disasters from junk bonds, mortgage securities and the financial blank canvas known as derivatives. And I got to know bunch of quantitative analysts (”quants”): mathematicians, computer scientists and economists who were working on Wall Street to develop the art and science of risk management.

 

They were developing systems that would comb through all of a firm’s positions, analyze everything that might go wrong and estimate how much it might lose on a really bad day.

 

We’ve had some bad days lately, and it turns out Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and maybe some others bet far too much. Their quants didn’t save them.

 

I called some old timers in the risk-management world to see what went wrong.

 

I fully expected them to tell me that the problem was that the alarms were blaring and red lights were flashing on the risk machines and greedy Wall Street bosses ignored the warnings to keep the profits flowing.

 

Ultimately, the people who ran the firms must take responsibility, but it wasn’t quite that simple.

 

In fact, most Wall Street computer models radically underestimated the risk of the complex mortgage securities, they said. That is partly because the level of financial distress is “the equivalent of the 100-year flood,” in the words of Leslie Rahl, the president of Capital Market Risk Advisors, a consulting firm.

 

But she and others say there is more to it: The people who ran the financial firms chose to program their risk-management systems with overly optimistic assumptions and to feed them oversimplified data. This kept them from sounding the alarm early enough.

 

Top bankers couldn’t simply ignore the computer models, because after the last round of big financial losses, regulators now require them to monitor their risk positions. Indeed, if the models say a firm’s risk has increased, the firm must either reduce its bets or set aside more capital as a cushion in case things go wrong.

 

In other words, the computer is supposed to monitor the temperature of the party and drain the punch bowl as things get hot. And just as drunken revelers may want to put the thermostat in the freezer, Wall Street executives had lots of incentives to make sure their risk systems didn’t see much risk.

 

“There was a willful designing of the systems to measure the risks in a certain way that would not necessarily pick up all the right risks,” said Gregg Berman, the co-head of the risk-management group at RiskMetrics, a software company spun out of JPMorgan. “They wanted to keep their capital base as stable as possible so that the limits they imposed on their trading desks and portfolio managers would be stable.”

 

One way they did this, Mr. Berman said, was to make sure the computer models looked at several years of trading history instead of just the last few months. The most important models calculate a measure known as Value at Risk — the amount of money you might lose in the worst plausible situation. They try to figure out what that worst case is by looking at how volatile markets have been in the past.

 

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But she and others say there is more to it: The people who ran the financial firms chose to program their risk-management systems with overly optimistic assumptions and to feed them oversimplified data. This kept them from sounding the alarm early enough.

 

 

The decontextualization and historical amnesia at the heart of "economics as a science" writ large.

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complex financial instruments were actually designed by mathematicians and physicists...

"Obviously they turned out to be wrong," Partnoy says. Asked why, he says, "Because you can't model human behavior with math."

Nice try bitches, but the only "mathematicians and physicists" who end up in finance are the failures and charlatans. Real "mathematicians and physicists" would be the first to tell you that market psychology has absolutely nothing to do with the quantitative sciences that they study.

 

But who is stupider: the pretenders claiming that simply crunching numbers is scientific, or the greedy businessmen and investors that bet billions on it? Where is the business sense that these people were supposed to have learned in business school?

 

ps. good electricians make good money

 

Oh look, douche-bag #2 decided to join the party. You know, the other guy besides Gary who thinks he has the world figured out from the ivory academic tower because he can throw softball criticisms at everyday people and thinks he sounds smart because of it. Good luck teaching at junior college fellas!

Well first I am flattered, really. But I am saddened by your barely veiled hatred of "everyday people," evident in your suggestion that it takes a monk in an ivory tower to tell them that there's nobody else to blame but themselves. Freedom baby--it has a bad side too. Whooda thunkit? Real freedom means you have the power to destroy yourself. Or be a baby daddy instead of graduating. But tell you what, I won't judge people, as long as they don't try to make me accountable for their mistakes.

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Don't lose sight of the topic at hand--this is about Levi dropping out of high school to marry his teenage baby momma.

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No, Yes, but this is the avenue for "mathematicians and physicists" to make a lot of money. And they do! Not every PhD wants to live on 45k/yr.

Fixed that for you

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on another note, Gary, you are a complete douche bag...

 

IMO most Phd's are completely useless in the real world (why, a prime example of this are the fucknuts physicists and mathmeticians who modeled the sub prime derivative schemes)...

 

on another secondary note, since when is a trained electrician, or any other trade, been defined as "uneducated"?

 

Gary...you're a douche...

 

Woah, I'm not saying he even has to go to college.. just finish high school. Not finishing high school is bad juju.

 

You even have to finish high school to join the Army.

 

The fact that I have a stupid fancy degree is irrelevant here.

Edited by Gary_Yngve

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First off I don't like Palin or the politics she stands for. Chances are 99.9 percent the family is a bunch of slack jawed mother fuckers. On the other hand they occasionally run into a good idea.

 

I've read a number of pieces regarding education for work skills. There is a huge lack of people capable of doing skilled manual labor. In the old days high schools would at least offer shop classes. Today it's all about passing tests to get to college. As a consequence there are lots of available jobs that pay good but require you to leave the office to get your work done.

 

I know in my field you need to get text education but you're useless unless you get out and practice by actually working under supervision at the ground level. I know tons of people in their 30s and 40s with years of experience, but there are no or very few 20 year olds learning the trade. Probably this is due to the fact that in the modern age people are afraid to get dirty and tired at work.

 

Some PhD types are useful, but so are people who are willing to work away from the desk and the water cooler.

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What does an unremarkable highschool transcript get you nowdays, anyway? If the boy wants to start a profession and start learning how to make it in the real world, all power to him. It doesn't sound like he was going K-16, and a relatively worthless high school diploma isn't going to feed his family.

 

Apprenticeships can be a great alternative to college, just depends on the person. Let's not forget that a lot of PhD programs have a pretty strong "apprenticeship" component. Many if not most of us are training for some technical profession, we just get there in different ways.

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In my mind, this country should aim for 100% high school graduation rate. Though Kurt, I think it would be great to have high school opportunities for prepping for vocation rather than prepping for college.

 

I see lacking a high school diploma as being a huge disadvantage for someone, even in a skilled trade. What happens if you become injured and need to take on a desk job? Given two resumes with roughly equal experience, would you choose the graduate or the dropout?

 

Does dropping out carry a stigma of "bad judgment" or "poor choices" that might harm your chances of getting hired? (Certainly there is a set of jobs so crappy that only dropouts work there, because no one else wants to.)

 

Wouldn't it be easier to finish HS and then start an apprenticeship, rather than drop out and try for a GED later?

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What does an unremarkable highschool transcript get you nowdays, anyway?

 

Why won't the Army, as desperate as it is for fresh meat, recruit dropouts?

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What happens if you become injured and need to take on a desk job?

 

The only desk job you can get with a diploma is standing behind the counter at McDonalds.

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What does an unremarkable highschool transcript get you nowdays, anyway? If the boy wants to start a profession and start learning how to make it in the real world, all power to him. It doesn't sound like he was going K-16, and a relatively worthless high school diploma isn't going to feed his family.

 

Apprenticeships can be a great alternative to college, just depends on the person.

 

With all due respect, I doubt he's going to have any trouble "feeding his family." After all, his fiance is still a minor, and her parents are wealthy. I doubt that they would prefer he drop out of high-school when he's so close to finishing, and an apprenticeship could be put off just a little bit. Or, are you suggesting that he and his minor fiance are being thrown out into the cold, and he needs to hurry up and start making a living? Now THAT would be a news story.

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Basically it boils down to the, who really cares....He's 17, I agree, he should finish high school...You're the f'n Governors soon to be "son in law"....I don't think he's struggling to support his family yet....

 

Unless, of course, he is 17 and only in like 9th grade...then I would say drop the hell out.

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Gary, being 18 and having a kid on the way would suspend a lot of high school action for most people to actually start bringing money into the household...i agree that he will need to finish it at sometime or another, but right now he needs his income to start flowing...this is the consequence of abstinence-policies not working and he will be paying for it for a long time...

 

not all of us can run home to mommy and daddy...

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Electrician? Too bad the Wasilla Hillbillies didn't come along earlier. His new momma could've got him a position of a colonial administrator running one of Iraq's energy ministries or Baghdad's electrical grid. Now he'd have to settle for a high -profile, do-nothing job in the Department of Energy.

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"if Barack Obama's kids were involved in such hijinks, and well, I think things would be different."

 

Yeah. It would make the Seattle Times!

I would think it would make more news than that--I mean, they are kinda young...

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Gary, being 18 and having a kid on the way would suspend a lot of high school action for most people to actually start bringing money into the household...i agree that he will need to finish it at sometime or another, but right now he needs his income to start flowing...this is the consequence of abstinence-policies not working and he will be paying for it for a long time...

 

not all of us can run home to mommy and daddy...

 

This is exactly the point. The kid and Palin's daughter ended up in a situation where finishing high school ain't going to happen. Buddy is going to have to settle for a GED later in life after he starts making money to help his new family pay the bills.

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This is exactly the point. The kid and Palin's daughter ended up in a situation where finishing high school ain't going to happen. Buddy is going to have to settle for a GED later in life after he starts making money to help his new family pay the bills.

 

Hello? What's the Palin family's net worth again? Win or lose, I don't think this kid's on his way to the oilfields; he hit the jackpot with the governor's daughter! The other teenagers in this situation? "Shoulda abstained, good luck, you're on your own".

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