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The guess when Dru hits 20,000 posts thread


Loose_Brie

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directions:

 

-click on your name

-click on "view all user's posts"

-go to web address bar, change the "25&" part at the end to "1000&" and press enter (this is the "posts per window")

-select all posts and copy

-paste into excel

-delete first 3 columns

-make another column that starts at 1 from the bottom (earliest post)

-make xy scatter plot from the two columns

-add to cc.com gallery

-post in thread to attain uber-Geek_em8.gif status

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4525CrackedPosts.jpg

 

Here we observe that unlike Dru, Cracked posts much more uniformly, with a linearity that is more precise than even the R^2 value suggests (due to the uncharacteristic lull in posts near the beginning of the data set). Conclusion: Cracked needs to go climbing.

That "uncharacteristic lull" was spring break, when my Ethernet connect was pried out of my cold, dead hands. Geek_em8.gif

 

My pattern is more linear than Dru's because I'm not sent out to go bushwhack for a week at a time. hahaha.gif

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directions:

 

-click on your name

-click on "view all user's posts"

-go to web address bar, change the "25&" part at the end to "1000&" and press enter (this is the "posts per window")

-select all posts and copy

-paste into excel

-delete first 3 columns

-make another column that starts at 1 from the bottom (earliest post)

-make xy scatter plot from the two columns

-add to cc.com gallery

-post in thread to attain uber-Geek_em8.gif status

 

I don't have Excel or know what a xy scatter plot is. I tossed my undergrad math notes in the fire years ago.

PLEASE DO MINE!!! I gave you lots o' beta and more to come when I'm in the 'Ham. Otherwise I give bad beta. wave.gif

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Schweeet!

 

Ok, for the South Twins, there is a gate and you HAVE to get permission to enter. The phone # is in the red beckey book. If they are logging they won't let you in or give you the key.

BRING A BIKE! It's a maze, take mostly right turns that go uphill to a knoll/cleared spot. The lake is in the trees down and left. I'm positive the roads have changed, so it's anybody's guess.

 

So someone please interpret my graph.

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We have some problems here:

 

We need to see standard errors for the coefficients, t-stats, and F-values to test for overall significance.

 

There is also omitted variable bias (there needs to be a dummy variable for weekends and holidays). Geek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gif

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Yeah and it's too bad that excel can't do sine/cosine wave fits.

 

Maybe someone with the Matlab curve fitting tool will be kind enough to import the data and do it. Geek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gif

 

Cracked, you heard the man. Get on it, colij boy. My nerd connections evaporated when I graduated. cry.gif

I've got access to Matlab, but I'm not familiar enough with matlab to do it. Sorry. cry.gifcry.gif
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If someone gets the data into a "posts per day" format, we can run multiple regressions on Shazam. Hell, we could include dummy variables for weekends and holidays, experiment with various functional forms, and determine which model has the best fit (Shazam allows one to test for model significance, and even calculates the F-statistic for you!) Geek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gif

 

As far as using Matlab, I have the student version which doesn't include the Curve Fitting Toolbox. cry.gifcry.gif

 

One could fit least squares polynomials in Matlab by solving A^T*Ax = A^T*b where A is an m x n matrix of m explanatatory variables of degree n , A^T is the transpose of A, b is an n-vector of y values, and x is an m-vector of coefficients (the least squares coefficients). Geek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gifGeek_em8.gif

 

Take it from me though, Shazam is the way to go. http://shazam.ucdavis.edu

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