Loose_Brie Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 July 4th at 4:20pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoboy Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 July 1st more likely, since he is a Canuck and all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWolfe Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 I think he's gonna burn out at 19,998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snugtop Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 July 12th, 1:02 am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 wasn't there already a thread about this you post count vultures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snugtop Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 Dru, you should be busy compiling your "Best of Dru's threads" thread.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 i think they are all good but please post links to your favourites if you like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jja Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 i think they are all good but please post links to your favourites if you like  well anything with corny canadian spelling for one ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 scientifically  19523 posts reg'd 02/08/01 currently 06/14/04  that is (365+365+365+127) days =1222 days  19523/1222 = 15.98 or call it 16 posts per day on average  so now 20,000-19,523 = 477 posts to go 477/16= 29 and 13/16ths  so i will make my 20, 000th post 29.8125 days from now. that will be july 14th. assuming 2 posts/hr over an 8 hr day, july 14th at 2:30 PM.  the miracle of science Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snugtop Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 For the record, my guess was closer than Loosey's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 scientifically  I expect a 95% confidence interval to be included to qualify any estimation of t(20,000) along with a statistical justification for employing the method of raw average posting rate to arrive at this prediction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 that would be statistically not scientifically Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoboy Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 Did you account for leap years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 Science without data is religion and data without statistics is very poor artwork Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 do the math yourself and see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 Science without data is religion and data without statistics is very poor artwork  well anyone with a grain of sense would actually see that my post count has steadily increased from like 1 a day back in feb '01 up to its current level so the actual curve is non linear thus producing a closer ETA than July 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 I demand visual evidence! Hey I bet a moderator could pull that stuff up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 So.... Â Here we have a graph of Dru's last 1000 posts, the raw data for which was extracted from here: Â http://www.cascadeclimbers.com/threadz/dosearch.php?Cat=0&Forum=All_Forums&Name=357&Searchpage=0&Limit=1000& Â Â We can see that the over the past couple of months Dru's posting frequency has indeed been linear, with an R^2 value of 0.97 and a posting frequency of about 22 posts per day. This means that should his posting frequency maintain its linear trend, post 20,000 should occur in 21.4 days, or roughly on the morning of Tuesday, July 6th. This does not take into account the obviously visible anomalies in the data due to periods of diminished posting by Dru, presumably during weekends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cracked Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 You need a job, Justin. Badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dru Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 justin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 Â Here we observe that unlike Dru, Cracked posts much more uniformly, with a linearity that is more precise than even the R^2 value suggests (due to the uncharacteristic lull in posts near the beginning of the data set). Conclusion: Cracked needs to go climbing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWolfe Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 chart! I wanna chart! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoboy Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 me too please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashw_justin Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 D'oh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancegranite Posted June 15, 2004 Share Posted June 15, 2004 We all do! me next!me next! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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