cj001f Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 cracked said:Saying that 'only 57% survive' is true, but misleading. How so? 30% of avalanche victims die of trauma! I don't think it's all wrong to say if you get caught in an avalanche you have a 1 in 2 chance of dying - IF you have safety equipment and use it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt.Caveman Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 (edited) I'm not arguing who's wrong... only that I recall reading what Stephen Ramsey is noting here being true and that does not match what the other person wrote..... Either forecast would probably keep me out of that valley... That's just me. Edited December 15, 2003 by Cpt.Caveman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cracked Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 cj001f said: cracked said:Saying that 'only 57% survive' is true, but misleading. How so? 30% of avalanche victims die of trauma! In that those 57% includes ALL victims, including those who aren't using beacons or carrying shovels, etc. Â A more useful statistic is how many people survive after being located and uncovered using a beacon. Of course, the first rule is 'don't get caught', but if you do get caught, your best bet is to be located by a beacon. Saying that it's a 50/50 chance of dying in an avalanche overlooks the fact that you can swing the odds in your favor. Â I'd say a more useful statistic is of the 123 skiers extricated within 15 min, only 8 were dead and, moreover, only 2 had died of asphyxia (extrication times 10 and 15 min), whereas the remaining 6 skiers had all sustained fatal injuries during descent of the avalanche 8/123 is significantly better odds than 50/50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figger_Eight Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 J_Fisher said: F-E, the forecast you quote was from 2:30 Saturday afternoon, well after the accident happened. The relevant forecast for arnchair quarterbacking was the previous forecast. Â Dickhead - the part I quoted commented on the conditions on Friday. Armchair quarterbacking? You don't know anything about me so go blow yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt.Caveman Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 So much for the argument I hear people make- Â Well it already slid. Let's go for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cj001f Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 cracked said: 8/123 is significantly better odds than 50/50. What part of 20% (not 30%) of all avalanche victims die of trauma(that's you head getting caved in, massive bleeding - things a beacon don't help) didn't you read? Â At best that means you've got a roughly 1:5 chance of dying - no matter what safety equipment you have. That's worse odds than Russian Roulette. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philfort Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Give the avy forecast, and the weather forecast, it was certainly not an unreasonable day to plan to head into the backcountry. The forecast did indeed call for only 3-6 inches, and the previous day only 3 inches had fallen (where we went anyway)... hardly extreme conditions. Â But it sure did turn out to be extreme. I don't know how much experience those snowshoers had, but I'm thinking this could have happened to any of us. I guess one of the lessons learned is "get the hell out" when the snow is coming down that hard for that long, but it can be difficult to gauge how much snow is falling. Â Someone commented on another bulletin board "But I was floored that people were insane enough to be up in that entire area today at all!" ... that sounds like a reasonable thing to say after the fact, but actually I think that's a bit of an ignorant statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lambone Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 hey guys, chill. there is no reason this discussion needs to turn into an exchange of name calling...grow up...people died. Â All I have to say about this tradgedy is that it just goes to show that all winter recreators need to respect avalanch conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cracked Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 cj001f said: cracked said: 8/123 is significantly better odds than 50/50. What part of 20% (not 30%) of all avalanche victims die of trauma(that's you head getting caved in, massive bleeding - things a beacon don't help) didn't you read? Sorry, I can't find that reference is the study you linked to. Could you quote it? I'm interested. Â At best that means you've got a roughly 1:5 chance of dying - no matter what safety equipment you have. That's worse odds than Russian Roulette. Again, I don't see where your numbers are coming from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Fisher Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Ramsay and Figger-Eight are right. I mis-read Friday's forecast in my original post. Though in my defense, there was nearly an identical statement to F-E's quote in Saturday's forecast. And "avalanche danger high above ___ feet/considerable below ___ feet" is pretty much the default forecast around here. Even if my reading comprehension leaves something to be desired, I still don't think it was necessarily irresponsible to head into the B/C on Saturday before the storm started dumping in earnest. Sorry for ruffling anyone's feathers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamaker Posted December 15, 2003 Author Share Posted December 15, 2003 Many good thoughts and questions.  Clarification: The victim in Source Lk Basin was with a party following tracks broken by an earlier party.  Scraps of info can be found at king5.com, komo website, seattletimes.com and, of course, turns-all-year.com  Intelligent use of beacons is smart, intelligent route-finding is better.  Would somone post the "red light / green light" avy decision making chart here? Does any one use it and like it? I think I want a copy for my car and pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minx Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 philfort said: Give the avy forecast, and the weather forecast, it was certainly not an unreasonable day to plan to head into the backcountry. The forecast did indeed call for only 3-6 inches, and the previous day only 3 inches had fallen (where we went anyway)... hardly extreme conditions. Â But it sure did turn out to be extreme. I don't know how much experience those snowshoers had, but I'm thinking this could have happened to any of us. I guess one of the lessons learned is "get the hell out" when the snow is coming down that hard for that long, but it can be difficult to gauge how much snow is falling. Â Someone commented on another bulletin board "But I was floored that people were insane enough to be up in that entire area today at all!" ... that sounds like a reasonable thing to say after the fact, but actually I think that's a bit of an ignorant statement. Â i don't know where you were but at alpental we had recieved more than that on friday and had already received at least 6" by 10AM on Sat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkemp Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Most BC skiiers have more training/experience than average snowshoer. A lot of newbie hikers go to Snow Lake in summer, and come winter they purchase a pair of snowshoes and go back there, practically oblivious to the danger. Â Most climbers, like me, prefer airy ridges to bowls. A skiier would obviously prefer the bowl - cant blame 'em. The newbie snowshoer might not know the difference. Same is true for snowmobilers. Â Yeah, question the leader. Key question - "What makes this safe?" Its a provocative question, one that I have encountered while leading groups. The leader had better have a good answer, a technical answer, or be ready to back off with a positive attitude. Â Studying the intended route on a map before going to the mountains is a great start - we should always do this as most terrain traps can be identified on the map and avoided. But map reading is also a technical skill. I've taught map reading to newbies and they literally dont know ridges from valleys. Â Avy beacons are pretty technical devices. Most newbies dont know how to turn them on (transponder vs receiver) much less go out and practice. But yeah, even people with practice are lucky to save a life with the avy beacon. I consider these for experienced BC travellers who are taking the risk level up a notch. No way should a newbie be running around with an avy beacon. Way more important to learn map reading skills coupled with avalanche avoidance training. An avy beacon for a newbie is like taking a pill to make an illness go away rather than understanding how to avoid the illness. Very common attitude - deadly but common. Â These skills - decision making and map reading - can be acquired through training and honed with experience. How can we reach out to newbies to acquire these skills? Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philfort Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 minx said: i don't know where you were but at alpental we had recieved more than that on friday and had already received at least 6" by 10AM on Sat. Â Stevens Pass. They received 3 inches on Friday, and no new snow by the time we left Seattle Saturday morning (5:30am - in order to get in an early day, since the forecast called for winds to switch to the west by afternoon, warming things up). At that point, Snoqualmie had received only 5 inches in the previous 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minx Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 dkemp-an avy beacon might've helped here, newbie or not. the ski patrol from alpental were some of the first responders and were there very quickly. they carry avy beacons and may have been able to locate here. who knows if it would've been the same model or not but they certainly would've had a better chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt.Caveman Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Â On Phil's Steven Pass and notes- Â There has been about 2 feet?? Since last weekend. On top of that crust that still seemed to be there on sunday. Â Â You dont need the same model beacon to work with another one. 457 kz should be the standard frequency for all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkemp Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 who knows if it would've been the same model or not but they certainly would've had a better chance. Â Ah, perhaps. I'm wasnt considering the skills of those outside a group. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Figger_Eight Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 No way should a newbie be running around with an avy beacon. Â I know what you're trying to say...but I don't think I'd go this far. Beacons are simply a tool - they don't replace knowledge and experience. As long as you understand that, anyone going into the backcountry should carry one - even newbies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin_B Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 I'll start by saying I'm a newbie to bc skiing. Â I don't know what the big deal is about going into the bc on a high avy day. More importanly it is the terrain you are on and the terrain above you coupled with the high avy danger. I don't think it was stupid to be out on those days, but maybe it was stupid to be out on certain terrain on those days. Â I was out in the bc on both Sat and Sun all day! We had no problems. We took a safe route, dug pits, and were aware of the snowpack. And we and picked out route accordingly. We had a blast and we stayed pretty damn safe too. Â I had 1.5 feet of new snow on my car after we were gone for 6-7 hours. Â PS - I guess it should be mentioned that the reason I was in the bc was for an avy clinic! Learned lots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dkemp Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Okay. But! (PeeWee Herman said Everybody's got a big but - whats your big but?!) Â But, I just dont like the "magic pill" attitude of so many people. And newbies dont know this stuff - they very well may not even know its a mistaken attitude. Â So how do we get them the correct training? Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philfort Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 There had been minimal snow (judging from the telemetry - couple inches a day) since the previous weekend, when we skied on Heather ridge in stable conditions. Â Anyway, my main point is that I think these were pretty tricky conditions, perhaps conducive to luring folks to places they shouldn't be. Sure, people should have realized as they were heading out and the snow was getting intense, to maybe re-evaluate their plans. Â But I wonder if even more incidents would have occured if the snow had started a little later in the day, perhaps allowing people to travel into more hazardous terrain while it seemed a reasonable proposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin_B Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003  from here The avalanche occurred just before noon, in the Snow Lake Trail area, just north of Alpental ski area.  The woman had been snowshoeing with a friend and they came to a spot on the trail that worried them. It looked like there had been a recent slide.  The woman's friend, Stacy Noland, went across first and just barely escaped alive  That is just poor judgement. They crossed through a recent avalanche path on a high avy day!!  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpt.Caveman Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 My advice and I am no expert: Â Dig a pit and analyze the snow pack. Some people use rutschtblock some people other tests. It doesnt take long.... Â Travel out and analyze the snow often.. Â Learn to use and wear beacons. Â Carry a shovel. Â KEY- Recent slide activity is a clear sign of the probability of more slides. I still stand by my thoughts on people saying "hey it just slid let's go for it" - That's not true all the time and only applies in some situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cj001f Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 cracked said:Sorry, I can't find that reference is the study you linked to. Could you quote it? I'm interested. If you've never seen those numbers you haven't taken an Avy class. Sell the Barryvox and take one. It's referenced here, among many other places. http://www.sunrockice.com/docs/avalanche_triage.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cracked Posted December 15, 2003 Share Posted December 15, 2003 Carl, Â Thanks for the link. Unfortuantly, it doesn't list references. Â As for you advice to sell my beacon, thanks, but I won't take it. I was wondering where the condescension I'm come to expect from you had gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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