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Hugh Conway

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Posts posted by Hugh Conway

  1. Few were willing to chalk the experience up to bad decisions, poor-analysis, wish-thinking, etc on their part.

     

    The flip side of the coin is talking to the successful ones - how many will say it was just dumb luck?

     

    I'd estimate that ~0.5% are/were victimized by another party, and the remainder have only themselves to blame.

     

    I'd perhaps rate it slightly higher, but my experience is colored by dealing with this crony capitalist

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A54922-2005Jan6.html

  2. How many of us have encountered someone loudly exclaiming how much a particular stock, investment property, etc has made them? How many have ever encountered someone confessing that they lost big-time on whatever investment they favored, what the financial strains brought on by the losses have cost them in terms of marital stress, etc?

     

    I've met several who would admit to having lost big in the tech bubble. Clearly it was a strain on them, especially as they watched others make it big. Most interesting is they were all still bullish on tech stocks, whether because of habit or faith I don't know.

  3. i wonder how the economy would do if this was put into practice by even 75% of the populous. Not that I don't think its a good idea, for our people, for our government.

     

    he acknowledges he's an America hater.

  4. but no need to stay around and bag on those who feel other than you

     

    I always fond contrary advice much more useful than pump and dump circle jerks.

     

    As for the iPhone & AAPL - watch overseas sales; they are the bellweather. The major revenue driver on the iPhone is AAPLs kickback from the service providers.

  5. you seem to be continuing with your comprehension problems. it does match rather nicely with your humor problems and your analysis problems though. you did get the moron part right though.

     

    ah yes, drinking and posting: here's a reason not to.

     

    wanna invest in my growth fund? You are just the know-it-all with money to burn I need!

    -C Ponzi

     

  6. i gotta say though that i prefer your deep financial analysis to your humor.

     

    insults like that from someone asking for advice from morons like me that post on message boards are priceless

  7. you seem to also think that someone who is "good" at investing is somehow obligated to "go full time". strange.

     

    Why wouldn't you?

    If you are looking to make money, that's the best way.

    If you wish to understand the market, you must participate in it.

    If you are a dilettante your returns will be better couple to fate than your own effort.

     

    I can, and have, argued about anything under the sun. Your comment shows you are either a dumb cunt (my vote because you think someone who's made a bunch of money is a great investor - cure Nick Leeson) or a shit stirrer (when I'm sober and generous)

  8. Showing up and bagging on others without offering anything positive is a weak way to try and show you are smart.

     

    Actually, it's completely the opposite. If I were good at investing THAT WOULD BE MY FULLTIME JOB. I don't trust any advisor, paid or unpaid. Why? Because if you had good advice you'd STFU instead of reducing your own returns. If you had really, really good advice you'd start a hedge fund and make $$$$$$

     

    I know I'm average, at best. From what I've seen thats better than 75% of the investors out there who conflate luck with brains and refuse to accept everything in life is probabilistic - so them making a million doesn't mean they were any smarter than the shmuck making 10,000.

     

    If you are good at it, go full time. If you aren't, let the professionals deal with it. If you are asking for investment advice on a climbing BB, well, ask yourself the first question....

  9. I think in the next few years, the well positioned bigs will make a huge comeback, especially citibank (triple returns in two to three years?).

     

    Citimavens are currently hard at work figuring out how to split Citi into many pieces to raise money to survive. I doubt it will make a big return (unless you buy now before divestiture). Same goes for Bank "we'll buy a company about to go into bankruptcy and facing massive pending legal charges to position ourselves now for when the housing market rebounds in 2015" America.

     

    Asking for free investment tips? I'll file this under "Sexy Cocoa is dumber than tvashtarkatena"

  10. Does anyone have any recommendations on good avy courses in the NW? Preferably in the portland area, but I'd drive for something worthwhile.

     

    Level 1?

     

    There are quite a few more providers out of the Seattle area, I've no experience with any.

     

    In Portland the only providers I know of are http://www.mountainsavvy.com/ (which looks to be full)

    The Mazamas and Mountain Hood Ski Patrol (unsure if either of these are available to non members)

     

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