Yes, best to shoot first I say. The rational foundation for any analysis, and indeed, for every government interested in global stability!
I don't think you're giving enough credit to US intelligence. By saying what you're saying, you're really stating that you know as much as the US gov't does .. and you and I both know, that's not the case.
You said yourself that when we find WMDs, you'll eat your words. Prepare to eat well my friend.